2026
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Steelers, 8 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 26–19 from as low as 9% (Q3 3:14, down 16–3). Tied 19–19 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 3:15: C.Boswell extra point is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:46, 48 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:46PITJ.Daniels pass short right intended for E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by J.Dean at TB 43. J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (J.Daniels).40% → 87%
- 2Q4 0:13TBC.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD17% → 35%
- 3Q4 2:47TBA.Rodgers sacked at TB 40 for -9 yards (D.Walker).51% → 67%
- 4Q4 0:51PITJ.Daniels sacked at PIT 48 for -5 yards (N.Herbig).68% → 84%
- 5Q4 0:03TBA.Rodgers kneels to PIT 20 for -1 yards.35% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
D.Metcalf led the Steelers at +2.8 EPA (11 catches for 93). B.Sharp led the Buccaneers at +1.4 EPA (1 catches for 21).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 33/49 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -13.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren75% | 14 | 64% | 50 | -1.5 | |
| R.Dowdle27% | 7 | 32% | 40 | +0.5 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 1 | 5% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf95% | 15 | 34% | 11 | 93 | +2.8 | |
| G.Bernard94% | 12 | 27% | 11 | 87 | 1 | +1.0 |
| D.Washington71% | 6 | 14% | 4 | 25 | 1 | -3.8 |
| R.Dowdle27% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 9 | -1.5 | |
| J.Warren75% | 4 | 9% | 2 | 28 | +0.4 | |
| P.Freiermuth72% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 11 | -1.8 |
Defense J.Ramsey 2 sacks, N.Herbig 2 sacks, J.Dean 1 INT, D.Everette 1 INT · Kicking C.Boswell 4/5 FG (long 58)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 22/43 | 164 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -21.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving85% | 19 | 76% | 46 | -6.3 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 4 | 16% | 39 | +4.6 | |
| K.Gainwell15% | 2 | 8% | 17 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka86% | 16 | 39% | 7 | 48 | 1 | -11.5 |
| C.Jr.92% | 8 | 20% | 4 | 37 | -0.1 | |
| T.III50% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 40 | +1.3 | |
| B.Irving85% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| T.Johnson34% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 7 | -2.0 | |
| C.Otton100% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 4 | +0.4 | |
| K.Gainwell15% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 7 | -0.4 | |
| B.Sharp5% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 21 | +1.4 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 1 | 2% | 1 | -3 | -1.0 |
Defense D.Walker 2 sacks, A.Robinson 1 INT, A.Muhammad 1 sack, R.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 4/4 FG (long 53)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Buccaneers give up 8.1 targets a game to tight ends (23rd), against a league average of 7.6. Steelers' tight ends produce 8.0 (11th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Steelers gain -0.11 EPA per dropback (26th). Buccaneers allow -0.20 (2nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Steelers create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (13th). Buccaneers give them up at 7% (4th).
The Steelers lead the series 7–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 · OT | PIT 26 at TB 19 |
| 2022 · Wk 6 | TB 18 at PIT 20 |
| 2018 · Wk 3 | PIT 30 at TB 27 |
| 2014 · Wk 4 | TB 27 at PIT 24 |
| 2010 · Wk 3 | PIT 38 at TB 13 |
2026 records
| Steelers | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 3–5 |
| Division | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 3–0 | 0–3 |
| Home | 4–0 | 1–4 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | LWLWW |
| Streak | Won 4 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 22.5 – 18.0 | 22.3 – 18.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#20 | -0.16#2 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#19 | 39%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#19 | 5.1#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 7%#4 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.11#26 | -0.20#2 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.11#1 | -0.15#6 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#2 | 3.6#8 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 34%#7 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#28 | 50%#9 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 126#25 | 131#10 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#12 | 56#20 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.0#11 | 8.1#23 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#6 | 33#18 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.