2026
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Ravens, 7 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 35–13 from as low as 14% (Q2 1:37, down 10–0). The game turned for good at Q3 0:18: T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to Z.Flowers (D.Lawrence) (46% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:45, 14 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:45BALT.Huntley pass short right to Z.Flowers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.38% → 53%
- 2Q4 15:00BALT.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to J.Cuevas.52% → 65%
- 3Q4 12:52CINJ.Burrow pass deep middle to T.Higgins to BAL 23 for 44 yards (K.Martin; K.Hamilton).68% → 79%
- 4Q3 4:33CINJ.Burrow pass short middle to T.Higgins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.52% → 62%
- 5Q3 6:33CINJ.Burrow pass deep right to T.Higgins pushed ob at BAL 24 for 19 yards (K.Wallace).42% → 51%
- ★Q3 0:18BALT.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to Z.Flowers (D.Lawrence).turning point46% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Burrow led the Bengals at +19.5 EPA (22 of 30 for 292). Z.Flowers led the Ravens at +5.9 EPA (8 catches for 137).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow94% | 22/30 | 292 | 4 | 1 | +18.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown75% | 11 | 55% | 39 | +0.1 | |
| S.Perine23% | 4 | 20% | 16 | 1 | -0.5 |
| T.Brooks6% | 3 | 15% | 6 | -2.1 | |
| J.Burrow94% | 2 | 10% | 12 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Higgins87% | 7 | 25% | 6 | 148 | 1 | +11.9 |
| J.Chase87% | 7 | 25% | 5 | 62 | 1 | +5.8 |
| C.Brown75% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 19 | -1.7 | |
| E.All28% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 26 | +1.9 | |
| D.Sample55% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 24 | 1 | +3.2 |
| D.Meyers38% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.7 | |
| M.Gesicki38% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1.4 |
| M.Tinsley34% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 |
Defense B.Mafe 1.5 sacks, D.Jr. 1 INT, D.Lawrence 1 sack, C.Howell 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 5/5 XP, 5 pts
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Huntley100% | 23/34 | 298 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +3.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry51% | 17 | 63% | 45 | -6.0 | |
| R.Ali6% | 4 | 15% | 19 | -0.3 | |
| J.Hill46% | 3 | 11% | 7 | -0.4 | |
| T.Huntley100% | 3 | 11% | 12 | -2.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers85% | 11 | 32% | 8 | 137 | 1 | +5.9 |
| J.Lane69% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 25 | +1.4 | |
| M.Andrews57% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 23 | +0.4 | |
| J.Hill46% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 26 | -0.1 | |
| R.Bateman73% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 33 | +2.3 | |
| J.Cuevas22% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 35 | -0.5 | |
| D.Henry51% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | +0.1 | |
| L.Wester1% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 15 | +1.3 |
Defense M.Green 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 2/2 FG, 1/1 XP, 7 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Bengals give up 9.6 targets a game to tight ends (30th), against a league average of 7.6. Ravens' tight ends produce 7.8 (13th).
Deep middle is open
Bengals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.84 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Ravens take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (27th). Bengals get home on 9% (3rd). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Ravens average +0.02 EPA per play (15th). Bengals allow -0.01 (15th). League average is +0.00.
The Ravens lead the series 30–26 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | CIN 35 at BAL 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | BAL 24 at CIN 0 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | CIN 32 at BAL 14 |
| 2024 · Wk 10 | CIN 34 at BAL 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 · OT | BAL 41 at CIN 38 |
2026 records
| Bengals | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Division | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 2–1 |
| Home | 2–1 | 1–2 |
| Away | 3–1 | 3–2 |
| Last 5 | LLWWW | WWLLL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 3 |
| Points a game | 29.4 – 22.6 | 22.4 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#15 | -0.01#15 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#12 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.8#9 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 11%#29 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#14 | -0.01#12 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#27 | 9%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#16 | -0.08#18 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#8 | 4.4#23 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#15 | 48%#29 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 42%#3 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 148#15 | 142#15 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 53#19 | 89#31 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.8#13 | 9.6#30 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#25 | 30#12 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.