2026
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Buccaneers, 7 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 43–13; their low point was 40% at Q1 14:52. The Panthers had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 12:00: B.Mayfield pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 19 yards (A.Evans) (43% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 0:59, 12 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 0:59TBR.Dixon punts 36 yards to CAR 14 D.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-K.Kieft at CAR 18.61% → 73%
- 2Q1 12:00TBB.Mayfield pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 19 yards (A.Evans).turning point43% → 51%
- 3Q2 11:15TBB.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (A.Muhammad) [A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by TB-C.Kancey at CAR 32. C.Kancey for 32 yards,…74% → 81%
- 4Q2 9:18CARB.Young pass deep middle to D.Waller for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21% → 28%
- 5Q2 9:09TBR.Fitzgerald extra point is Blocked (T.Smith) DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. Z.McCollum recovered the blocked kick. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. PENALTY on…72% → 79%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Johnson led the Buccaneers at +8.2 EPA (2 catches for 33). K.Pickett led the Panthers at +4.7 EPA (3 of 4 for 47).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield90% | 7/11 | 64 | 1 | +5.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving59% | 24 | 49% | 106 | 2 | +4.7 |
| K.Gainwell30% | 14 | 29% | 88 | +3.5 | |
| S.Tucker14% | 7 | 14% | 52 | 1 | -2.2 |
| J.Daniels10% | 2 | 4% | -3 | 0.0 | |
| B.Mayfield90% | 1 | 2% | 1 | -0.2 | |
| T.Johnson65% | 1 | 2% | 14 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.73% | 5 | 45% | 4 | 27 | +1.0 | |
| B.Irving59% | 2 | 18% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 | |
| T.Johnson65% | 2 | 18% | 2 | 33 | 1 | +7.0 |
| C.Otton89% | 1 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| T.III56% | 1 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Defense Y.Diaby 3 sacks, Z.McCollum 1 INT, T.Smith 1 INT, A.Muhammad 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG (long 44)
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young77% | 14/27 | 163 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -20.3 |
| K.Pickett23% | 3/4 | 47 | +2.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard61% | 7 | 39% | 33 | +2.2 | |
| T.Etienne30% | 6 | 33% | 8 | -2.5 | |
| A.III9% | 3 | 17% | 23 | 1 | +1.4 |
| K.Pickett23% | 1 | 6% | 15 | +2.4 | |
| B.Young77% | 1 | 6% | 9 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan68% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 40 | +1.6 | |
| C.Hubbard61% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 27 | +0.8 | |
| J.III46% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 20 | -3.9 | |
| J.Coker66% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 9 | -5.0 | |
| D.Waller45% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 50 | 1 | +3.9 |
| T.Tremble48% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| M.Evans50% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 39 | +2.2 | |
| T.Etienne30% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 17 | +1.2 | |
| D.Moore23% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| B.Tremayne38% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.8 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Buccaneers average 5.0 yards per carry (3rd). Panthers allow 4.6 (27th).
Short middle is open
Panthers are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.29 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 12% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Panthers give up 27 yards a game to running backs (9th), against a league average of 32. Buccaneers' running backs produce 17 (29th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers succeed on 41% of plays (25th) against a defense that allows 44% (22nd).
The Panthers lead the series 25–24 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). The Buccaneers have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | TB 43 at CAR 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | CAR 14 at TB 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | TB 20 at CAR 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | CAR 14 at TB 48 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 · OT | TB 26 at CAR 23 |
2026 records
| Buccaneers | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Division | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Home | 1–4 | 1–2 |
| Away | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | LWLWW | LWWLL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 18.9 | 25.4 – 27.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#26 | +0.03#20 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#25 | 44%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#25 | 5.4#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 8%#5 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.23#31 | +0.02#16 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#30 | 4%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.01#8 | -0.01#28 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.0#3 | 4.6#27 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#14 | 47%#28 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#26 | 80%#30 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 104#31 | 146#17 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 27#32 | 47#12 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.1#32 | 7.6#15 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#29 | 27#9 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.