2026
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Panthers, 8 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 43–13; their low point was 40% at Q1 14:52. The Panthers had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 12:00: B.Mayfield pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 19 yards (A.Evans) (43% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 0:59, 12 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 0:59TBR.Dixon punts 36 yards to CAR 14 D.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-K.Kieft at CAR 18.61% → 73%
- 2Q1 12:00TBB.Mayfield pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 19 yards (A.Evans).turning point43% → 51%
- 3Q2 11:15CARB.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (A.Muhammad) [A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by TB-C.Kancey at CAR 32. C.Kancey for 32 yards,…74% → 81%
- 4Q2 9:18CARB.Young pass deep middle to D.Waller for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21% → 28%
- 5Q2 9:09CARR.Fitzgerald extra point is Blocked (T.Smith) DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. Z.McCollum recovered the blocked kick. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. PENALTY on…72% → 79%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Johnson led the Buccaneers at +8.2 EPA (2 catches for 33). K.Pickett led the Panthers at +4.7 EPA (3 of 4 for 47).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield90% | 7/11 | 64 | 1 | +5.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving59% | 24 | 49% | 106 | 2 | +4.7 |
| K.Gainwell30% | 14 | 29% | 88 | +3.5 | |
| S.Tucker14% | 7 | 14% | 52 | 1 | -2.2 |
| J.Daniels10% | 2 | 4% | -3 | 0.0 | |
| B.Mayfield90% | 1 | 2% | 1 | -0.2 | |
| T.Johnson65% | 1 | 2% | 14 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.73% | 5 | 45% | 4 | 27 | +1.0 | |
| B.Irving59% | 2 | 18% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 | |
| T.Johnson65% | 2 | 18% | 2 | 33 | 1 | +7.0 |
| C.Otton89% | 1 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| T.III56% | 1 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Defense Y.Diaby 3 sacks, Z.McCollum 1 INT, T.Smith 1 INT, A.Muhammad 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG, 5/5 XP, 11 pts
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young77% | 14/27 | 163 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -20.3 |
| K.Pickett23% | 3/4 | 47 | +2.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard61% | 7 | 39% | 33 | +2.2 | |
| T.Etienne30% | 6 | 33% | 8 | -2.5 | |
| A.III9% | 3 | 17% | 23 | 1 | +1.4 |
| K.Pickett23% | 1 | 6% | 15 | +2.4 | |
| B.Young77% | 1 | 6% | 9 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan68% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 40 | +1.6 | |
| C.Hubbard61% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 27 | +0.8 | |
| J.III46% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 20 | -3.9 | |
| J.Coker66% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 9 | -5.0 | |
| D.Waller45% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 50 | 1 | +3.9 |
| T.Tremble48% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| M.Evans50% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 39 | +2.2 | |
| T.Etienne30% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 17 | +1.2 | |
| D.Moore23% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| B.Tremayne38% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.8 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/2 XP, 1 pt
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Buccaneers give up 56 yards a game to tight ends (21st), against a league average of 55. Panthers' tight ends produce 70 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Panthers gain +0.05 EPA per dropback (16th). Buccaneers allow -0.20 (2nd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Panthers gain 5.6 yards per play (12th). Buccaneers give up 5.1 (7th), with the league at 5.4.
The Panthers lead the series 25–24 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). The Buccaneers have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | TB 43 at CAR 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | CAR 14 at TB 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | TB 20 at CAR 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | CAR 14 at TB 48 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 · OT | TB 26 at CAR 23 |
2026 records
| Buccaneers | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Division | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Home | 1–4 | 1–2 |
| Away | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | LWLWW | LWWLL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 18.9 | 25.4 – 27.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#12 | -0.16#2 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#16 | 39%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.1#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 7%#4 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#16 | -0.20#2 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#12 | -0.15#5 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#16 | 3.6#8 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 34%#6 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#12 | 50%#9 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#5 | 131#10 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#4 | 56#21 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.7#8 | 8.1#23 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#17 | 33#19 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.