Dolphins offensevsJets defense

The Dolphins won 28–25; their low point was 37% at Q1 14:55. The Jets had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 12:06: G.Smith pass short middle intended for M.Taylor INTERCEPTED by M.Taaffe at MIA 15. M.Taaffe to MIA 15 for no gain (J.Ruckert) (49% → 61%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:55, 15 points for the Dolphins.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q4 4:55MIAM.Willis pass short left to C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs.78% → 94%+15 MIA
2. 2Q4 9:43NYJG.Smith sacked at MIA 15 for -12 yards (C.Robinson).59% → 74%+14 MIA
3. 3Q4 3:30NYJG.Smith pass short left to M.Taylor for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 22%+13 NYJ
4. 4Q4 2:00MIAM.Willis up the middle to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (J.Briggs).84% → 96%+13 MIA
5. 5Q1 13:03MIAM.Willis pass deep left to G.Dulcich to NYJ 4 for 32 yards (B.Stephens).42% → 54%+12 MIA
6. ★Q2 12:06NYJG.Smith pass short middle intended for M.Taylor INTERCEPTED by M.Taaffe at MIA 15. M.Taaffe to MIA 15 for no gain (J.Ruckert).turning point49% → 61%+11 MIA

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.