2026
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Jets, 7 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Dolphins won 28–25; their low point was 37% at Q1 14:55. The Jets had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 12:06: G.Smith pass short middle intended for M.Taylor INTERCEPTED by M.Taaffe at MIA 15. M.Taaffe to MIA 15 for no gain (J.Ruckert) (49% → 61%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:55, 15 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:55MIAM.Willis pass short left to C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs.78% → 94%
- 2Q4 9:43MIAG.Smith sacked at MIA 15 for -12 yards (C.Robinson).59% → 74%
- 3Q4 3:30NYJG.Smith pass short left to M.Taylor for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 22%
- 4Q4 2:00MIAM.Willis up the middle to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (J.Briggs).84% → 96%
- 5Q1 13:03MIAM.Willis pass deep left to G.Dulcich to NYJ 4 for 32 yards (B.Stephens).42% → 54%
- ★Q2 12:06MIAG.Smith pass short middle intended for M.Taylor INTERCEPTED by M.Taaffe at MIA 15. M.Taaffe to MIA 15 for no gain (J.Ruckert).turning point49% → 61%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Willis led the Dolphins at +18.4 EPA (14 of 21 for 208). G.Smith led the Jets at +12.6 EPA (23 of 30 for 287).
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Willis100% | 14/21 | 208 | 2 | 2 | +11.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.II83% | 25 | 61% | 103 | 1 | +0.1 |
| M.Willis100% | 8 | 20% | 37 | 1 | +7.0 |
| J.Wright12% | 6 | 15% | 8 | -2.8 | |
| M.Washington80% | 2 | 5% | 8 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Dulcich65% | 5 | 24% | 5 | 86 | +8.8 | |
| C.Bell48% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 25 | +0.4 | |
| M.Washington80% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 27 | +1.9 | |
| O.II83% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| C.Douglas68% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 70 | 2 | +7.4 |
| J.Wright12% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| K.Jr.15% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| S.Traore17% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense M.Taaffe 1 INT, M.Herring 1 sack, C.Robinson 1 sack
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 23/30 | 287 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +12.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Allen78% | 17 | 81% | 104 | +2.0 | |
| G.Smith100% | 2 | 10% | 0 | +0.4 | |
| A.Beck8% | 1 | 5% | -1 | -0.6 | |
| I.Davis22% | 1 | 5% | 5 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Allen78% | 7 | 24% | 6 | 30 | -1.2 | |
| M.Taylor63% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 62 | 2 | +6.2 |
| O.Jr.64% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 115 | 1 | +9.2 |
| G.Wilson85% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 26 | +0.4 | |
| I.Davis22% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 49 | +4.2 | |
| A.Mitchell44% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -2.3 | |
| J.Woods24% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1 | -0.8 | |
| K.Sadiq37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.6 |
Defense N.Lynn 1 sack, K.Enagbare 0.5 sacks, D.Bailey 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Sanders 1/2 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Jets gain +0.13 EPA per dropback (10th). Dolphins allow +0.30 (32nd).
Deep right is open
Dolphins are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.34 EPA per attempt. Jets send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Jets score a touchdown on 46% of red zone trips (32nd). Dolphins allow 64% (18th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jets gain 5.6 yards per play (11th). Dolphins give up 5.9 (27th), with the league at 5.4.
The Dolphins lead the series 29–26 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | MIA 28 at NYJ 25 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | MIA 34 at NYJ 10 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 | NYJ 21 at MIA 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | MIA 20 at NYJ 32 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 · OT | NYJ 26 at MIA 32 |
2026 records
| Dolphins | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1–6 | 2–6 |
| Division | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Home | 0–3 | 1–3 |
| Away | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | LWLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 3 |
| Points a game | 16.7 – 25.9 | 21.3 – 23.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#11 | +0.13#32 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#11 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#5 | 11%#25 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#10 | +0.30#32 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 4%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#19 | -0.07#19 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#12 | 4.1#18 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#23 | 54%#32 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#32 | 64%#18 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#12 | 121#4 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#21 | 69#28 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.9#12 | 7.9#18 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 41#25 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.