2025
Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 28–23 from as low as 23% (Q1 7:03, down 7–0). The Buccaneers had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 2:37: D.Maye pass short middle to D.Douglas to TB 14 for 26 yards (A.Nelson) (43% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:55, 26 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:55NEB.Mayfield pass short left to R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (J.Hawkins) [M.Williams].67% → 93%
- 2Q4 5:25TBD.Maye pass short right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by T.Smith at TB -5. Touchback.8% → 28%
- 3Q2 0:02NED.Maye pass short left to S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 71%
- 4Q1 0:11NED.Maye pass short right to K.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [C.Braswell].29% → 45%
- 5Q4 7:27NED.Maye pass deep right to M.Hollins to TB 8 for 54 yards (Z.McCollum) [Y.Diaby].74% → 90%
- ★Q2 2:37NED.Maye pass short middle to D.Douglas to TB 14 for 26 yards (A.Nelson).turning point43% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Henderson led the Patriots at +8.4 EPA (14 carries for 147). T.Johnson led the Buccaneers at +6.5 EPA (4 catches for 42).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 16/31 | 270 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson84% | 14 | 52% | 147 | 2 | +8.8 |
| D.Maye100% | 7 | 26% | 13 | -5.0 | |
| T.Jennings8% | 4 | 15% | 5 | +0.4 | |
| D.Johnson10% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.2 | |
| D.Douglas21% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Hollins79% | 10 | 34% | 6 | 106 | +1.3 | |
| S.Diggs59% | 8 | 28% | 5 | 46 | 1 | +3.0 |
| H.Henry87% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 9 | -2.2 | |
| D.Douglas21% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 34 | +3.3 | |
| K.Williams56% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 72 | 1 | +5.0 |
| A.Hooper56% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| J.Westover25% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| T.Henderson84% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.4 |
Defense K.Chaisson 1 sack, E.Ponder 1 sack
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 28/43 | 273 | 3 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White72% | 10 | 48% | 38 | +0.1 | |
| S.Tucker32% | 9 | 43% | 53 | +1.7 | |
| S.Shepard65% | 1 | 5% | 11 | +0.8 | |
| K.Johnson13% | 1 | 5% | 11 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka88% | 13 | 30% | 6 | 115 | 1 | +2.5 |
| C.Otton97% | 12 | 28% | 9 | 82 | +2.5 | |
| R.White72% | 5 | 12% | 5 | 16 | -2.9 | |
| T.Johnson83% | 5 | 12% | 4 | 42 | 2 | +6.5 |
| S.Shepard65% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 20 | -0.8 | |
| S.Tucker32% | 2 | 5% | 1 | -2 | -1.9 | |
| P.Durham28% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| K.Johnson13% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense T.Smith 1 INT, E.Roberts 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 1/1 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Buccaneers give up 51 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. Patriots' running backs produce 36 (10th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Patriots' run game is 27th in EPA per carry (-0.10). Buccaneers allow -0.11 (5th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Patriots average +0.09 EPA per play (5th). Buccaneers allow +0.02 (17th). League average is +0.01.
The Patriots lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | NE 28 at TB 23 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | TB 19 at NE 17 |
| 2017 · Wk 5 | NE 19 at TB 14 |
| 2013 · Wk 3 | TB 3 at NE 23 |
| 2009 · Wk 7 | NE 35 at TB 7 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 8–9 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Away | 8–0 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LLLLW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.