2025
Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 21 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 28–23 from as low as 23% (Q1 7:03, down 7–0). The Buccaneers had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 2:37: D.Maye pass short middle to D.Douglas to TB 14 for 26 yards (A.Nelson) (43% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:55, 26 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:55NEB.Mayfield pass short left to R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (J.Hawkins) [M.Williams].67% → 93%
- 2Q4 5:25TBD.Maye pass short right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by T.Smith at TB -5. Touchback.8% → 28%
- 3Q2 0:02NED.Maye pass short left to S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 71%
- 4Q1 0:11NED.Maye pass short right to K.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [C.Braswell].29% → 45%
- 5Q4 7:27NED.Maye pass deep right to M.Hollins to TB 8 for 54 yards (Z.McCollum) [Y.Diaby].74% → 90%
- ★Q2 2:37NED.Maye pass short middle to D.Douglas to TB 14 for 26 yards (A.Nelson).turning point43% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Henderson led the Patriots at +8.4 EPA (14 carries for 147). T.Johnson led the Buccaneers at +6.5 EPA (4 catches for 42).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 16/31 | 270 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson84% | 14 | 52% | 147 | 2 | +8.8 |
| D.Maye100% | 7 | 26% | 13 | -5.0 | |
| T.Jennings8% | 4 | 15% | 5 | +0.4 | |
| D.Johnson10% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.2 | |
| D.Douglas21% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Hollins79% | 10 | 34% | 6 | 106 | +1.3 | |
| S.Diggs59% | 8 | 28% | 5 | 46 | 1 | +3.0 |
| H.Henry87% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 9 | -2.2 | |
| D.Douglas21% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 34 | +3.3 | |
| K.Williams56% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 72 | 1 | +5.0 |
| A.Hooper56% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| J.Westover25% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| T.Henderson84% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.4 |
Defense K.Chaisson 1 sack, E.Ponder 1 sack
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 28/43 | 273 | 3 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White72% | 10 | 48% | 38 | +0.1 | |
| S.Tucker32% | 9 | 43% | 53 | +1.7 | |
| S.Shepard65% | 1 | 5% | 11 | +0.8 | |
| K.Johnson13% | 1 | 5% | 11 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka88% | 13 | 30% | 6 | 115 | 1 | +2.5 |
| C.Otton97% | 12 | 28% | 9 | 82 | +2.5 | |
| R.White72% | 5 | 12% | 5 | 16 | -2.9 | |
| T.Johnson83% | 5 | 12% | 4 | 42 | 2 | +6.5 |
| S.Shepard65% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 20 | -0.8 | |
| S.Tucker32% | 2 | 5% | 1 | -2 | -1.9 | |
| P.Durham28% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| K.Johnson13% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense T.Smith 1 INT, E.Roberts 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 1/1 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Buccaneers take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (16th). Patriots get home on 7% (16th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Patriots are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.32 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Buccaneers average 3.8 yards per carry (27th). Patriots allow 3.9 (8th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (15th). Patriots give them up at 8% (6th).
The Patriots lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | NE 28 at TB 23 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | TB 19 at NE 17 |
| 2017 · Wk 5 | NE 19 at TB 14 |
| 2013 · Wk 3 | TB 3 at NE 23 |
| 2009 · Wk 7 | NE 35 at TB 7 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 8–9 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Away | 8–0 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LLLLW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | -0.09#5 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 4.9#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 8%#6 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.12#6 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | -0.09#12 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 3.9#8 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 36%#7 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 55%#8 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 117#4 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 55#20 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 7.5#20 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 29#11 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.