2025
Week 18 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 38–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 84%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 11:44, 9 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 11:44NEQ.Ewers pass deep left intended for T.Wease INTERCEPTED by J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.84% → 93%
- 2Q3 13:27MIAQ.Ewers pass short middle to G.Dulcich to NE 25 for 20 yards (J.Hawkins).10% → 15%
- 3Q1 14:55NET.R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 39 for 9 yards (J.Brooks; J.Phillips).87% → 92%
- 4Q2 1:42MIAA.Borregales 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (Z.Sieler), RECOVERED by MIA-J.Marshall at 50. J.Marshall to NE 40 for 10 yards (A.Hooper).7% → 12%
- 5Q2 4:39NEJ.Wright left end to NE 47 for 2 yards (C.Gonzalez, J.Gibbens). FUMBLES (J.Gibbens), touched at NE 45, RECOVERED by NE-E.Ponder at NE 45. E.Ponder…88% → 93%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Dulcich led the Dolphins at +3.0 EPA (3 catches for 31). D.Maye led the Patriots at +13.4 EPA (14 of 18 for 191).
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Ewers95% | 16/23 | 137 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8.6 |
| Z.Wilson5% | 0/2 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Wright46% | 13 | 52% | 23 | -8.3 | |
| O.II36% | 9 | 36% | 9 | -2.7 | |
| M.Washington70% | 2 | 8% | 22 | +1.6 | |
| Q.Ewers95% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jr.34% | 5 | 21% | 3 | 44 | -1.2 | |
| G.Dulcich52% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 31 | +3.0 | |
| M.Washington70% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 6 | 1 | -1.5 |
| T.Washington38% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 26 | +0.9 | |
| C.Jr.64% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -4.8 | |
| A.Ingold55% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 3 | -0.9 | |
| J.Wright46% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 17 | +1.2 | |
| J.Hill61% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 | |
| O.II36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.6 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking R.Patterson 1/1 FG (long 52)
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye76% | 14/18 | 191 | 1 | +8.7 | ||
| J.Dobbs24% | 3/4 | 23 | +0.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson41% | 13 | 38% | 53 | 2 | -1.4 |
| R.Stevenson47% | 7 | 21% | 131 | 2 | +10.2 |
| D.Johnson15% | 5 | 15% | 13 | -1.9 | |
| D.Maye76% | 5 | 15% | 41 | +4.7 | |
| J.Dobbs24% | 3 | 9% | 0 | -4.9 | |
| K.Williams46% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Henry58% | 5 | 25% | 5 | 56 | +1.4 | |
| K.Boutte58% | 4 | 20% | 2 | 24 | -0.5 | |
| S.Diggs46% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 43 | +2.4 | |
| D.Douglas25% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 29 | +1.2 | |
| R.Stevenson47% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 22 | 1 | +3.1 |
| A.Hooper41% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 | |
| J.Westover36% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| E.III44% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 35 | +2.1 |
Defense J.Hawkins 1 INT, K.Chaisson 1 sack, C.Barmore 1 sack, M.Jones 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/2 FG (long 59)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Patriots gain +0.17 EPA per dropback (5th). Dolphins allow +0.13 (26th).
Deep middle is open
Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Patriots take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (29th). Dolphins get home on 7% (13th). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Patriots average +0.09 EPA per play (5th). Dolphins allow +0.09 (26th). League average is +0.01.
The Patriots lead the series 30–25 since 1999. They have won the last 3. Nov 1, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium: the Patriots won 24–19. Malik Willis started at quarterback for the Dolphins and Drake Maye for the Patriots; Jeff Hafley and Mike Vrabel coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | NE 24 at MIA 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | MIA 10 at NE 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | NE 33 at MIA 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | NE 15 at MIA 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | MIA 15 at NE 10 |
2025 records
| Dolphins | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–10 | 14–3 |
| Division | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 5–0 |
| Home | 5–4 | 6–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 20.4 – 24.9 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | +0.09#26 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 48%#29 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.9#26 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 11%#25 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | +0.13#26 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | -0.03#20 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.6#25 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 41%#17 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 65%#26 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 127#9 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 66#29 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 8.2#25 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 37#25 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.