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Season over · final

2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

Patriots offensevsSteelers defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

PIT offense NE offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · PIT 21 · NE 14

The Steelers won 21–14; their low point was 36% at Q4 7:48. The game turned for good at Q4 7:48: D.Maye sacked at PIT 39 for -6 yards (N.Herbig). FUMBLES (N.Herbig) [N.Herbig], touched at PIT 37, RECOVERED by PIT-T.Watt at PIT 38. T.Watt to… (36% → 62%).

At kickoffPIT 54%PIT by 1.5 on the line

PIT low point36%Q4 7:48 · tied 14⁠–⁠14

Swings past 50%4times the favorite changed

Biggest swing26 ptsPIT · Q4 7:48

NE wins50%PIT wins

12345Turning pointPIT low 36%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 7:48NED.Maye sacked at PIT 39 for -6 yards (N.Herbig). FUMBLES (N.Herbig) [N.Herbig], touched at PIT 37, RECOVERED by PIT-T.Watt at PIT 38. T.Watt to…turning point36% → 62%+26 PIT
2Q3 13:17NER.Stevenson right guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (Ca.Heyward). FUMBLES (Ca.Heyward), touched at PIT 0, RECOVERED by PIT-P.Wilson at PIT -1. Touchback.61% → 80%+19 PIT
3Q4 15:00NED.Maye pass short middle to H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.25% → 41%+16 NE
4Q3 13:46PITA.Rodgers pass short left intended for C.Austin INTERCEPTED by R.Spillane [K.Chaisson] at PIT 48. R.Spillane pushed ob at PIT 11 for 37 yards…21% → 36%+15 NE
5Q4 2:20PITA.Rodgers pass deep left to C.Austin for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.76% → 90%+13 PIT

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 3

J.Smith led the Steelers at +3.5 EPA (3 catches for 23). H.Henry led the Patriots at +9.2 EPA (8 catches for 90).

Steelers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
A.Rodgers100%	16/23	139	2	1		+0.2

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Warren80%	18	69%	47		-2.7
A.Rodgers100%	4	15%	1		-0.4
K.Gainwell26%	4	15%	16	1	+0.5

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Warren80%	6	27%	5	34		-0.6
C.III72%	5	23%	3	34	1	-2.5
D.Metcalf89%	4	18%	3	32	1	+2.6
J.Smith83%	3	14%	3	23		+3.5
P.Freiermuth70%	3	14%	1	6		-3.0
K.Gainwell26%	1	5%	1	10		+0.7

Defense T.Watt 2 sacks, B.Echols 1 INT, C.Heyward 1 sack, N.Herbig 1 sack

Patriots

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
D.Maye100%	28/37	268	2	1	5	+1.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
T.Henderson46%	11	38%	28	-0.5
A.Gibson26%	7	24%	28	-5.1
D.Maye100%	7	24%	45	+2.2
R.Stevenson36%	4	14%	18	-9.2

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
H.Henry81%	11	31%	8	90	2	+9.2
D.Douglas39%	5	14%	2	7		-3.2
M.Hollins62%	4	11%	4	27		+1.7
S.Diggs53%	3	8%	3	23		+0.8
A.Hooper65%	3	8%	2	28		+1.6
R.Stevenson36%	3	8%	3	38		+2.9
K.Boutte76%	3	8%	2	28		-1.7
T.Henderson46%	3	8%	3	19		+0.3
K.Williams12%	1	3%	1	8		+0.9

Defense R.Spillane 1 INT

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Wideouts feast

Steelers give up 167 yards a game to wide receivers (29th), against a league average of 140. Patriots' wide receivers produce 160 (7th).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Pressure problem

Patriots take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (29th). Steelers get home on 7% (10th). League average is 7%.

Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Patriots succeed on 46% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 44% (15th).

The series · Steelers and Patriots since 1999, and this season's records20 meetings

The Patriots lead the series 15–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). Sep 20, 2026, at Gillette Stadium: the Patriots won 20–3. Drake Maye started at quarterback for the Patriots and Aaron Rodgers for the Steelers; Mike Vrabel and Mike McCarthy coached.

Steelers at home3–8the Steelers' record

In New England2–7the Steelers' record

Most pointsSteelers 34 · Patriots 552004 · 2013

Biggest winSteelers by 23 · Patriots by 302008 · 2019

Playoffs0–3the Steelers' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 2	PIT 3 at NE 20
2025 · Wk 3	PIT 21 at NE 14
2023 · Wk 14	NE 21 at PIT 18
2022 · Wk 2	NE 17 at PIT 14
2019 · Wk 1	PIT 3 at NE 33

2025 records

	Steelers	Patriots
Overall	10–7	14–3
Division	4–2	5–1
Conference	8–4	9–3
Other conference	2–3	5–0
Home	6–3	6–3
Away	4–4	8–0
Last 5	WWWLW	WLWWW
Streak	Won 1	Won 3
Points a game	23.4 – 22.8	28.8 – 18.8

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · NE offense against PIT defense

Stat	NE off	PIT def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.09#5	+0.02#18	+0.01
Success rate	46%#7	44%#15	44%
Yards per play	6.1#3	5.6#19	5.4
Explosive play rate	12%#4	9%#15	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.17#5	+0.03#17	+0.01
Sack rate	10%#29	7%#10	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.10#27	-0.01#26	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.3#16	4.3#19	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	41%#13	44%#28	40%
Red zone TD rate	61%#11	54%#7	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	160#7	167#29	140
TE yards per game	56#14	64#28	53
TE targets per game	6.4#19	8.3#28	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	36#10	30#16	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Patriots: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.8610% of throws

+0.615% of throws

+0.759% of throws

Short

+0.2630% of throws

+0.2318% of throws

+0.2528% of throws

Steelers: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.4137 throws

+1.1225 throws

+1.1234 throws