2026
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Colts, 8 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 41–23; their low point was 43% at Q1 10:33. The game turned for good at Q1 10:27: L.Jackson pass deep left to Z.Flowers to IND 2 for 49 yards (J.Walley) (49% → 61%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:27BALL.Jackson pass deep left to Z.Flowers to IND 2 for 49 yards (J.Walley).turning point49% → 61%
- 2Q1 7:38INDD.Jones pass short middle intended for L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by R.Smith at IND 32. R.Smith to IND 31 for 1 yard (J.Downs).63% → 72%
- 3Q1 12:37INDD.Jones pass short middle to J.Downs to BAL 19 for 12 yards (K.Martin).43% → 50%
- 4Q1 5:54BALL.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at IND 21 for 16 yards (K.Harris). Indianapolis challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld.…71% → 77%
- 5Q1 14:10INDD.Jones pass short middle to J.Downs to BAL 33 for 25 yards (K.Hamilton).41% → 47%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Z.Flowers led the Ravens at +13.1 EPA (5 catches for 150). J.Downs led the Colts at +3.4 EPA (2 catches for 37).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 17/25 | 324 | 1 | 2 | +10.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry54% | 24 | 65% | 144 | 3 | +6.8 |
| L.Jackson100% | 7 | 19% | 40 | 1 | +2.3 |
| J.Hill46% | 6 | 16% | 18 | -2.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Andrews72% | 6 | 25% | 4 | 49 | +2.1 | |
| Z.Flowers29% | 6 | 25% | 5 | 150 | 1 | +13.1 |
| J.Lane40% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 11 | -4.0 | |
| C.Moore37% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 53 | +3.2 | |
| L.Wester29% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 15 | -0.1 | |
| D.Henry54% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 19 | +1.7 | |
| D.Smythe62% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | +0.1 | |
| J.Hill46% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +1.1 | |
| R.Bateman78% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| M.Hibner34% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +0.9 |
Defense R.Smith 1 INT, T.Robinson 1 sack, M.Starks 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 2/2 FG, 5/5 XP, 11 pts
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 19/31 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -9.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor89% | 19 | 95% | 98 | 2 | +2.2 |
| D.Jones100% | 1 | 5% | 4 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Allen67% | 6 | 21% | 6 | 32 | 0.0 | |
| A.Pierce59% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 61 | +1.9 | |
| T.Warren93% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 13 | 1 | -0.6 |
| J.Taylor89% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 23 | -5.0 | |
| J.Downs89% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 37 | +3.4 | |
| L.Treadwell35% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -4.8 | |
| A.Dulin19% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| A.Ogletree11% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| S.McGowan11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -1.8 |
Defense D.Buckner 0.5 sacks, G.Stewart 0.5 sacks, A.Key 0.5 sacks, L.Latu 0.5 sacks · Kicking S.Shrader 1/1 FG, 2/3 XP, 5 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Colts' run game is 5th in EPA per carry (+0.02). Ravens allow -0.06 (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.08 EPA per attempt. Colts send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Ravens give up 18 yards a game to running backs (2nd), against a league average of 32. Colts' running backs produce 27 (22nd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Colts succeed on 42% of plays (21st) against a defense that allows 44% (21st).
The Colts lead the series 10–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | BAL 41 at IND 23 |
| 2023 · Wk 3 · OT | IND 22 at BAL 19 |
| 2021 · Wk 5 · OT | IND 25 at BAL 31 |
| 2020 · Wk 9 | BAL 24 at IND 10 |
| 2017 · Wk 16 | IND 16 at BAL 23 |
2026 records
| Ravens | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Division | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 1–5 |
| Other conference | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Away | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Last 5 | WWLLL | WLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.4 | 20.1 – 27.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#30 | +0.01#17 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#21 | 44%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#31 | 5.4#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 8%#10 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#30 | +0.07#21 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 6%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.06#22 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#15 | 3.6#10 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 40%#12 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#13 | 68%#23 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#24 | 178#28 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#25 | 47#11 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.4#9 | 6.0#2 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 18#2 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.