2026
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Steelers, 7 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 30–27 from as low as 24% (Q4 11:04, down 27–24). The Bengals had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:53: J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (D.Harmon). FUMBLES (D.Harmon) [D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-S.Joseph at CIN 49 (48% → 96%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:53PITJ.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (D.Harmon). FUMBLES (D.Harmon) [D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-S.Joseph at CIN 49.turning point48% → 96%
- 2Q4 11:04PITC.Johnston punts 51 yards to CIN 13 K.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 16, RECOVERED by PIT-B.Skowronek at CIN 14. PIT-B.Echols was injured…24% → 48%
- 3Q4 13:33CINJ.Burrow pass deep middle to M.Gesicki for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.48% → 69%
- 4Q4 0:58CINJ.Burrow pass short right to J.Chase ran ob at PIT 38 for 13 yards (D.Everette).33% → 52%
- 5Q1 13:17PITA.Rodgers pass deep left to R.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.35% → 49%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Burrow led the Bengals at +15.1 EPA (28 of 37 for 282). A.Rodgers led the Steelers at +6.9 EPA (19 of 34 for 292).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 28/37 | 282 | 3 | 1 | +14.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown70% | 13 | 72% | 61 | +0.9 | |
| S.Perine32% | 3 | 17% | 9 | -0.3 | |
| J.Burrow100% | 2 | 11% | 13 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase100% | 12 | 32% | 9 | 98 | 1 | +9.3 |
| T.Higgins93% | 7 | 19% | 6 | 90 | 1 | +9.9 |
| D.Meyers56% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 29 | +0.6 | |
| S.Perine32% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 5 | -4.2 | |
| M.Gesicki51% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 37 | 1 | +5.1 |
| T.Hudson23% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 13 | +0.1 | |
| D.Sample51% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| C.Brown70% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 8 | -0.4 | |
| C.Young2% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense D.Lawrence 2 sacks, J.Battle 1 INT · Kicking E.McPherson 2/2 FG (long 50)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 19/34 | 292 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +8.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren90% | 17 | 74% | 127 | +3.3 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 3 | 13% | 10 | -1.6 | |
| T.Homer5% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.5 | |
| P.Freiermuth60% | 1 | 4% | 1 | +0.4 | |
| L.III5% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Wilson39% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 60 | 1 | +2.6 |
| D.Metcalf95% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 31 | 1 | +2.5 |
| M.Pittman73% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 16 | -0.8 | |
| P.Freiermuth60% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 30 | -0.6 | |
| J.Warren90% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 49 | +2.2 | |
| D.Washington76% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 67 | +4.0 | |
| R.Tonyan6% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| B.Skowronek18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 23 | 1 | +2.5 |
| G.Bernard27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +0.9 |
Defense D.Harmon 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 3/3 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Steelers average 5.2 yards per carry (2nd). Bengals allow 4.4 (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Bengals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.84 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Steelers score a touchdown on 50% of red zone trips (28th). Bengals allow 42% (3rd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Steelers succeed on 42% of plays (19th) against a defense that allows 44% (17th).
The Steelers lead the series 41–16 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | CIN 27 at PIT 30 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | CIN 12 at PIT 34 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | PIT 31 at CIN 33 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CIN 19 at PIT 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | PIT 44 at CIN 38 |
2026 records
| Bengals | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 6–2 |
| Division | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 3–0 |
| Home | 2–1 | 4–0 |
| Away | 3–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | LLWWW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 29.4 – 22.6 | 22.5 – 18.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#20 | -0.01#14 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#19 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#19 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 11%#29 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.11#26 | -0.01#11 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 9%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.11#1 | -0.08#18 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#2 | 4.4#23 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 48%#29 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#28 | 42%#3 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 126#25 | 142#15 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#12 | 89#31 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.0#11 | 9.6#30 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#6 | 30#12 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.