2026
Week 4 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
49ers offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for 49ers, 8 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 24–14; their low point was 41% at Q2 6:01. The game turned for good at Q3 9:52: C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28 M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (S.Neal). FUMBLES (S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-S.Neal at DEN 28. S.Neal to DEN 28 for… (48% → 67%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 9:52SFC.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28 M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (S.Neal). FUMBLES (S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-S.Neal at DEN 28. S.Neal to DEN 28 for…turning point48% → 67%
- 2Q4 2:25SFB.Purdy pass short left to G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.83% → 97%
- 3Q4 4:10DENB.Nix pass short left to J.Waddle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7% → 18%
- 4Q2 2:15SFD.Samuel left end to DEN 23 for 20 yards (B.Jones).49% → 59%
- 5Q1 1:48DENW.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD42% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Badie led the Broncos at +5.8 EPA (2 carries for 7). B.Purdy led the 49ers at +7.2 EPA (19 of 30 for 218).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix98% | 25/42 | 214 | 1 | +4.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins32% | 11 | 50% | 40 | -1.3 | |
| R.Harvey44% | 7 | 32% | 25 | -0.8 | |
| T.Badie18% | 2 | 9% | 7 | +2.8 | |
| B.Nix98% | 2 | 9% | 10 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey44% | 10 | 26% | 10 | 68 | +1.0 | |
| C.Sutton73% | 6 | 16% | 1 | 4 | -2.5 | |
| J.Waddle68% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 35 | 1 | +0.7 |
| E.Engram67% | 5 | 13% | 1 | 6 | -1.6 | |
| M.Jr.27% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 10 | -0.1 | |
| P.Bryant36% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 47 | +5.3 | |
| J.Dobbins32% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 12 | +0.8 | |
| T.Badie18% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 32 | +3.0 | |
| A.Trautman45% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking W.Lutz 2/3 FG (58 no good), 6 pts
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 19/30 | 218 | 2 | +8.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey74% | 15 | 43% | 52 | 1 | -2.6 |
| B.Purdy100% | 10 | 29% | 29 | -1.3 | |
| K.Black26% | 6 | 17% | 13 | +0.3 | |
| D.Sr.67% | 3 | 9% | 44 | +3.0 | |
| J.Cowing32% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Evans59% | 8 | 28% | 5 | 76 | +2.4 | |
| G.Kittle91% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 70 | 1 | +4.6 |
| D.Sr.67% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 26 | 1 | +2.2 |
| C.McCaffrey74% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 18 | -0.3 | |
| K.Juszczyk41% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 28 | +2.0 | |
| B.Cooks12% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| J.Cowing32% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking E.Pineiro 1/2 FG (54 blocked), 3/3 XP, 6 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Broncos give up 48 yards a game to running backs (31st), against a league average of 32. 49ers' running backs produce 49 (4th).
Short middle is open
Broncos are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.27 EPA per attempt. 49ers send 19% of their throws there.
Wideouts get blanketed
Broncos give up 131 yards a game to wide receivers (9th), against a league average of 147. 49ers' wide receivers produce 135 (20th).
Success rate
Call this one even. 49ers succeed on 53% of plays (1st) against a defense that allows 40% (7th).
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | DEN 14 at SF 24 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | SF 10 at DEN 11 |
| 2018 · Wk 14 | DEN 14 at SF 20 |
| 2014 · Wk 7 | SF 17 at DEN 42 |
| 2010 · Wk 8 | DEN 16 at SF 24 |
2026 records
| Broncos | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 6–1 |
| Division | 2–1 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 3–1 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 3–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 4–0 | 4–0 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 4 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.5 – 20.6 | 28.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SF off | Favors SF · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.18#2 | -0.03#13 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 53%#1 | 40%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.5#1 | 5.2#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 13%#2 | 9%#15 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#3 | -0.06#6 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 3%#1 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#4 | -0.02#26 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 4.4#22 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 50%#2 | 43%#22 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 87%#1 | 48%#8 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 135#20 | 131#9 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 65#7 | 68#26 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.3#18 | 8.8#27 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 49#4 | 48#31 | 32 | |
49ers: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.