2026
Week 4 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Chiefs, 8 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 30–27; their low point was 40% at Q3 1:29. The game turned for good at Q4 3:35: P.Mahomes pass deep left to T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (T.Stukes). KC-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-Q.Walker,… (43% → 79%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:35KCP.Mahomes pass deep left to T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (T.Stukes). KC-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-Q.Walker,…turning point43% → 79%
- 2Q3 0:30KCK.Walker right guard pushed ob at LV 8 for 76 yards (T.Johnson).48% → 67%
- 3Q4 13:25LVK.Cousins pass short right to B.Bowers to KC 25 for 21 yards (M.Delane).25% → 39%
- 4Q1 4:33KCP.Mahomes pass deep middle to X.Worthy to LV 7 for 41 yards (E.Stokes).47% → 60%
- 5Q4 3:21KCH.Butker kicks 59 yards from KC 35 to LV 6. D.Young to LV 22 for 16 yards (X.Nwankpa, J.Bassa). FUMBLES (J.Bassa), RECOVERED by KC-J.Cochrane at…80% → 92%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Thornton led the Chiefs at +9.1 EPA (5 catches for 111). K.Cousins led the Raiders at +9.8 EPA (31 of 52 for 365).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 15/30 | 225 | 2 | 2 | +1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III75% | 22 | 85% | 177 | 2 | +3.7 |
| P.Mahomes100% | 2 | 8% | 0 | +0.5 | |
| K.Tonga | 1 | 4% | 0 | -2.0 | |
| M.Araiza | 1 | 4% | 12 | +3.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Thornton63% | 8 | 30% | 5 | 111 | 2 | +9.1 |
| X.Worthy75% | 7 | 26% | 4 | 70 | +3.7 | |
| T.Kelce83% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 15 | -0.2 | |
| N.Gray68% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 17 | -0.7 | |
| J.Royals63% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.5 | |
| K.III75% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -1.5 | |
| C.Allen8% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| E.Johnson27% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +0.5 |
Defense X.Nwankpa 1 INT · Kicking H.Butker 1/1 FG (long 28)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 31/52 | 365 | 2 | 1 | +9.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty67% | 15 | 58% | 58 | -2.9 | |
| M.Jr.21% | 9 | 35% | 18 | -4.1 | |
| C.Heyward23% | 2 | 8% | -4 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Bowers82% | 11 | 23% | 6 | 86 | 1 | +5.1 |
| M.Mayer88% | 10 | 21% | 8 | 82 | +1.7 | |
| T.Tucker67% | 8 | 17% | 4 | 44 | -1.6 | |
| A.Jeanty67% | 8 | 17% | 6 | 68 | -0.7 | |
| C.White62% | 4 | 8% | 2 | 36 | +3.7 | |
| I.Thomas31% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 32 | 1 | +3.6 |
| D.Young14% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 9 | -0.2 | |
| M.Jr.21% | 2 | 4% | 1 | -1 | -2.0 | |
| C.Heyward23% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 |
Defense Q.Walker 1 sack, A.Butler 0.5 sacks, M.Crosby 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Gay 4/4 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Chiefs average 5.3 yards per carry (1st). Raiders allow 5.2 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Raiders are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.73 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Raiders give up 163 yards a game to wide receivers (25th), against a league average of 147. Chiefs' wide receivers produce 118 (28th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Chiefs create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (9th). Raiders give them up at 11% (31st).
The Chiefs lead the series 36–19 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | KC 30 at LV 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | KC 12 at LV 14 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | LV 0 at KC 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | LV 17 at KC 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | KC 27 at LV 20 |
2026 records
| Chiefs | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Division | 3–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 3–0 | 1–3 |
| Away | 2–2 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.9 – 18.7 | 27.6 – 28.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.13#4 | +0.08#28 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 48%#6 | 48%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.4#3 | 6.2#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 11%#31 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.14#9 | +0.16#27 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#4 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.09#2 | -0.03#24 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.3#1 | 5.2#32 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#13 | 44%#25 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 71%#27 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 118#28 | 163#25 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 85#3 | 56#18 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.7#6 | 8.6#26 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#1 | 32#16 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.