DOWN X DOWN › week 4 › Chiefs at Raiders

Updated Nov 3, 7:02 AM ET

2026

Week 4 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium

Raiders offensevsChiefs defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Raiders, 7 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

KC offense LV offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · KC 30 · LV 27

The Chiefs won 30–27; their low point was 40% at Q3 1:29. The game turned for good at Q4 3:35: P.Mahomes pass deep left to T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (T.Stukes). KC-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-Q.Walker,… (43% → 79%).

At kickoffKC 68%KC by 4.5 on the line

KC low point40%Q3 1:29 · down 13⁠–⁠10

Swings past 50%22times the favorite changed

Biggest swing36 ptsKC · Q4 3:35

LV wins50%KC wins

12345Turning pointKC low 40%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 3:35KCP.Mahomes pass deep left to T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (T.Stukes). KC-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-Q.Walker,…turning point43% → 79%+36
2Q3 0:30KCK.Walker right guard pushed ob at LV 8 for 76 yards (T.Johnson).48% → 67%+19
3Q4 13:25LVK.Cousins pass short right to B.Bowers to KC 25 for 21 yards (M.Delane).25% → 39%+15
4Q1 4:33KCP.Mahomes pass deep middle to X.Worthy to LV 7 for 41 yards (E.Stokes).47% → 60%+14
5Q4 3:21KCH.Butker kicks 59 yards from KC 35 to LV 6. D.Young to LV 22 for 16 yards (X.Nwankpa, J.Bassa). FUMBLES (J.Bassa), RECOVERED by KC-J.Cochrane at…80% → 92%+13

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 4

T.Thornton led the Chiefs at +9.1 EPA (5 catches for 111). K.Cousins led the Raiders at +9.8 EPA (31 of 52 for 365).

Chiefs

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
P.Mahomes100%	15/30	225	2		2	+1.7

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
K.III75%	22	85%	177	2	+3.7
P.Mahomes100%	2	8%	0		+0.5
K.Tonga	1	4%	0		-2.0
M.Araiza	1	4%	12		+3.6

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.Thornton63%	8	30%	5	111	2	+9.1
X.Worthy75%	7	26%	4	70		+3.7
T.Kelce83%	4	15%	2	15		-0.2
N.Gray68%	3	11%	2	17		-0.7
J.Royals63%	2	7%	0	0		-2.5
K.III75%	1	4%	1	2		-1.5
C.Allen8%	1	4%	0	0		-0.9
E.Johnson27%	1	4%	1	10		+0.5

Defense X.Nwankpa 1 INT · Kicking H.Butker 1/1 FG (long 28)

Raiders

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
K.Cousins100%	31/52	365	2	1		+9.8

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
A.Jeanty67%	15	58%	58	-2.9
M.Jr.21%	9	35%	18	-4.1
C.Heyward23%	2	8%	-4	+0.8

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
B.Bowers82%	11	23%	6	86	1	+5.1
M.Mayer88%	10	21%	8	82		+1.7
T.Tucker67%	8	17%	4	44		-1.6
A.Jeanty67%	8	17%	6	68		-0.7
C.White62%	4	8%	2	36		+3.7
I.Thomas31%	2	4%	2	32	1	+3.6
D.Young14%	2	4%	1	9		-0.2
M.Jr.21%	2	4%	1	-1		-2.0
C.Heyward23%	1	2%	1	9		+0.7

Defense Q.Walker 1 sack, A.Butler 0.5 sacks, M.Crosby 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Gay 4/4 FG (long 48)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Tight ends feast

Chiefs give up 10.0 targets a game to tight ends (31st), against a league average of 7.6. Raiders' tight ends produce 13.6 (1st).

Opportunity

Deep left is open

Chiefs are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.62 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Wideouts get blanketed

Chiefs give up 121 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 147. Raiders' wide receivers produce 100 (32nd).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Raiders average +0.02 EPA per play (14th). Chiefs allow -0.04 (10th). League average is +0.00.

The series · Chiefs and Raiders since 1999, and this season's records55 meetings

The Chiefs lead the series 36–19 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.

Chiefs at home16–11the Chiefs' record

In Las Vegas20–8the Chiefs' record

Most pointsChiefs 56 · Raiders 492013 · 2000

Biggest winChiefs by 39 · Raiders by 242021 · 2002

The last 5

2026 · Wk 4	KC 30 at LV 27
2025 · Wk 18	KC 12 at LV 14
2025 · Wk 7	LV 0 at KC 31
2024 · Wk 13	LV 17 at KC 19
2024 · Wk 8	KC 27 at LV 20

2026 records

	Chiefs	Raiders
Overall	5–2	4–4
Division	3–1	1–1
Conference	5–1	3–3
Other conference	0–1	1–1
Home	3–0	1–3
Away	2–2	3–1
Last 5	WWWLL	LLLLW
Streak	Lost 2	Won 1
Points a game	23.9 – 18.7	27.6 – 28.8

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · LV offense against KC defense

Stat	LV off	KC def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.02#14	-0.04#10	+0.00
Success rate	43%#14	40%#5	44%
Yards per play	5.5#14	5.1#8	5.4
Explosive play rate	8%#26	8%#9	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.19#6	-0.01#13	+0.03
Sack rate	4%#3	4%#31	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.21#29	-0.13#8	-0.08
Yards per carry	3.2#30	3.4#1	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	44%#9	40%#15	41%
Red zone TD rate	55%#22	42%#4	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	100#32	121#3	147
TE yards per game	120#1	66#25	55
TE targets per game	13.6#1	10.0#31	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	53#2	42#26	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Raiders: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.727% of throws

+0.284% of throws

-0.526% of throws

Short

+0.1132% of throws

+0.2625% of throws

+0.4226% of throws

Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.6220 throws

+0.2611 throws

-0.137 throws