2026
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Titans offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Titans, 8 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 24–18 and were favored the whole way, never below 78%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:18, 13 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:18BALC.Ward pass short middle intended for T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by T.Simpson [M.Green] at BAL 39. T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 for 24 yards…82% → 94%
- 2Q1 6:01TENT.Pollard right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10% → 16%
- 3Q1 2:35BALR.Eckley punts 45 yards to TEN 10 C.Dike ran ob at TEN 30 for 20 yards (D.Smythe). PENALTY on TEN-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced…78% → 84%
- 4Q2 8:20BALDirect snap to T.Pollard. T.Pollard right guard to BAL 2 for no gain (N.Madubuike).87% → 92%
- 5Q1 12:13BALD.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.92% → 96%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Tate led the Titans at +6.7 EPA (9 catches for 145). L.Jackson led the Ravens at +11.7 EPA (15 of 20 for 222).
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 20/31 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard53% | 16 | 62% | 48 | 1 | -2.0 |
| C.Ward100% | 4 | 15% | 27 | -1.3 | |
| N.Singleton12% | 3 | 12% | 2 | -1.4 | |
| T.Spears36% | 2 | 8% | 7 | -0.2 | |
| W.Robinson67% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Tate84% | 12 | 43% | 9 | 145 | +6.7 | |
| W.Robinson67% | 5 | 18% | 3 | 19 | 1 | -0.1 |
| T.Pollard53% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 2 | -8.4 | |
| C.Ridley47% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 13 | +0.3 | |
| D.Bellinger52% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 | |
| T.Spears36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -1 | -1.3 | |
| E.Ayomanor62% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 22 | +1.9 | |
| G.Helm72% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.7 | |
| C.Dike12% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +1.0 |
Defense J.II 1 sack, J.Martin 0.5 sacks, M.Harris 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Slye 1/1 FG (long 33)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson52% | 15/20 | 222 | 2 | 2 | +11.8 | |
| T.Huntley48% | 8/9 | 63 | +0.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry62% | 23 | 77% | 73 | 1 | -3.3 |
| T.Huntley48% | 4 | 13% | 16 | -0.1 | |
| L.Jackson52% | 2 | 7% | 20 | -0.1 | |
| J.Hill38% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers73% | 10 | 34% | 8 | 118 | 1 | +4.3 |
| M.Andrews58% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 27 | 1 | +1.8 |
| J.Hill38% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 22 | +0.4 | |
| D.Henry62% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 6 | -0.6 | |
| R.Bateman47% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 46 | +4.2 | |
| D.Walker69% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 19 | +1.7 | |
| E.Sarratt36% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 13 | +0.3 | |
| M.Hibner58% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 34 | +2.5 |
Defense T.Simpson 1 INT, E.Burke 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 1/2 FG (long 64)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Ravens give up 178 yards a game to wide receivers (28th), against a league average of 147. Titans' wide receivers produce 138 (18th).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.08 EPA per attempt. Titans send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Ravens give up 18 yards a game to running backs (2nd), against a league average of 32. Titans' running backs produce 19 (27th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Titans succeed on 41% of plays (24th) against a defense that allows 44% (21st).
The Ravens lead the series 13–9 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | TEN 18 at BAL 24 |
| 2023 · Wk 6 | BAL 24 at TEN 16 |
| 2020 · Wk 18 · playoffs | BAL 20 at TEN 13 |
| 2020 · Wk 11 · OT | TEN 30 at BAL 24 |
| 2019 · Wk 19 · playoffs | TEN 28 at BAL 12 |
2026 records
| Titans | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1–7 | 4–4 |
| Division | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 1–5 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 2–1 |
| Home | 0–4 | 1–2 |
| Away | 1–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 5 | LLWLL | WWLLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 3 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 24.9 | 22.4 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Titans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TEN off | Favors TEN · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#27 | +0.01#17 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#24 | 44%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#28 | 5.4#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#28 | 8%#10 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.13#27 | +0.07#21 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 6%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#18 | -0.06#22 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#13 | 3.6#10 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 36%#28 | 40%#12 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#25 | 68%#22 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 138#18 | 178#28 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 29#30 | 47#11 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.3#27 | 6.0#2 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 19#27 | 18#2 | 32 | |
Titans: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.