2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Steelers, 8 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 34–22; their low point was 43% at Q1 12:28. The game turned for good at Q3 11:48: J.Taylor right guard to PIT 2 for 1 yard (G.Rubio; J.Sawyer) (50% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 8:57, 14 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:57PITA.Rodgers pass short right to J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [G.Stewart].48% → 63%
- 2Q3 7:16PITJ.Warren left guard for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 82%
- 3Q3 12:08INDD.Jones pass deep left to T.Warren pushed ob at PIT 3 for 29 yards (D.Everette).40% → 50%
- 4Q2 7:48INDT.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.29% → 37%
- 5Q4 10:11PITA.Rodgers pass short left to G.Bernard ran ob at IND 31 for 25 yards (A.Haulcy).73% → 81%
- ★Q3 11:48PITJ.Taylor right guard to PIT 2 for 1 yard (G.Rubio; J.Sawyer).turning point50% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Warren led the Colts at +7.3 EPA (7 catches for 83). J.Warren led the Steelers at +8.2 EPA (15 carries for 101).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 24/44 | 267 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor73% | 15 | 63% | 45 | -2.8 | |
| S.McGowan27% | 5 | 21% | 16 | -0.8 | |
| D.Jones100% | 3 | 13% | 4 | +1.2 | |
| T.Warren94% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Allen45% | 9 | 21% | 5 | 45 | +0.4 | |
| T.Warren94% | 9 | 21% | 7 | 83 | +4.5 | |
| L.Treadwell80% | 8 | 19% | 2 | 34 | -1.3 | |
| J.Downs85% | 6 | 14% | 3 | 47 | -1.9 | |
| J.Taylor73% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 37 | +1.7 | |
| M.Alie-Cox42% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 14 | +1.2 | |
| D.Burks10% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| N.Westbrook-Ikhine10% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| A.Ogletree27% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | |
| S.McGowan27% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 3 | -0.5 |
Defense D.Buckner 1 sack · Kicking S.Shrader 5/5 FG (long 57)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers97% | 22/31 | 235 | 3 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren87% | 15 | 68% | 101 | 1 | +5.1 |
| M.Rudolph3% | 2 | 9% | -2 | -1.4 | |
| A.Rodgers97% | 1 | 5% | 6 | +0.2 | |
| D.Metcalf92% | 1 | 5% | 11 | +1.1 | |
| P.Freiermuth68% | 1 | 5% | 1 | +2.2 | |
| L.III13% | 1 | 5% | 6 | +0.1 | |
| G.Bernard92% | 1 | 5% | 4 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Bernard92% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 80 | +1.9 | |
| P.Freiermuth68% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 44 | 2 | +3.6 |
| J.Warren87% | 6 | 20% | 6 | 87 | 1 | +3.1 |
| D.Metcalf92% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 12 | -0.7 | |
| D.Washington63% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 12 | -0.3 | |
| R.Wilson33% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense C.Heyward 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 2/2 FG (long 54)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Steelers' run game is 1st in EPA per carry (+0.11). Colts allow +0.02 (30th).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.73 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Colts give up 130 yards a game to wide receivers (8th), against a league average of 147. Steelers' wide receivers produce 126 (25th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Steelers succeed on 42% of plays (19th) against a defense that allows 43% (14th).
The Steelers lead the series 12–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | IND 22 at PIT 34 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | IND 20 at PIT 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | PIT 24 at IND 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 15 | PIT 13 at IND 30 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 | PIT 24 at IND 17 |
2026 records
| Colts | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 1–5 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Home | 1–2 | 4–0 |
| Away | 1–4 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | LWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 20.1 – 27.8 | 22.5 – 18.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#20 | +0.07#24 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#19 | 43%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#19 | 6.1#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 10%#20 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.11#26 | +0.06#19 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.11#1 | +0.02#30 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#2 | 4.8#29 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 33%#5 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#28 | 62%#16 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 126#25 | 130#8 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#12 | 51#13 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.0#11 | 6.8#11 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#6 | 43#27 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.