2026
Week 6 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Rams, 8 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cardinals won 18–16 from as low as 9% (Q1 11:45, tied 0–0). The Rams had been 87% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:03: C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD (50% → 100%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:03ARIC.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOODturning point50% → 100%
- 2Q4 0:47ARIJ.Brissett pass deep middle to J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-J.Wallace, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at…27% → 51%
- 3Q4 8:05ARIM.Stafford pass short right to T.Higbee to ARI 22 for 8 yards (C.Simon). FUMBLES (C.Simon), RECOVERED by ARI-D.Burke at ARI 25. ** Injury Update:…57% → 80%
- 4Q4 2:01LAM.Stafford pass short middle to P.Nacua to ARI 34 for 43 yards (G.Williams) [D.Robinson].24% → 38%
- 5Q4 4:37ARIK.Williams up the middle to ARI 41 for -2 yards (B.Baker).53% → 67%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Brissett led the Cardinals at +2.7 EPA (24 of 35 for 218). B.Corum led the Rams at +4.0 EPA (9 carries for 42).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 24/35 | 218 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Allgeier56% | 18 | 51% | 38 | -4.1 | |
| B.Knight44% | 15 | 43% | 80 | 0.0 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 2 | 6% | 2 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride97% | 9 | 26% | 7 | 53 | -3.9 | |
| K.Bourne57% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 47 | +1.7 | |
| M.Wilson92% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 32 | +0.4 | |
| J.Brooks53% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 30 | +2.2 | |
| E.Higgins44% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 28 | +1.2 | |
| B.Knight44% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 18 | +1.3 | |
| T.Allgeier56% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 10 | -0.2 |
Defense B.Baker 1 sack, J.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 6/6 FG (long 43)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 25/33 | 222 | 2 | 3 | -2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams72% | 10 | 50% | 50 | +0.0 | |
| B.Corum28% | 9 | 45% | 42 | +1.8 | |
| D.Allen31% | 1 | 5% | 0 | -4.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua90% | 7 | 22% | 6 | 80 | +1.0 | |
| C.Parkinson62% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 31 | 1 | +2.3 |
| K.Williams72% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 17 | -3.5 | |
| D.Adams74% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 39 | +3.5 | |
| T.Higbee83% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 22 | -3.8 | |
| K.Mumpfield47% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 15 | -0.5 | |
| B.Corum28% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 18 | 1 | +2.2 |
Defense Q.Lake 1 INT · Kicking B.Grupe 1/1 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Rams gain +0.07 EPA per dropback (15th). Cardinals allow +0.23 (31st).
Deep right is open
Cardinals are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.75 EPA per attempt. Rams send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Rams' run game is 7th in EPA per carry (+0.01). Cardinals allow -0.14 (7th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (23rd). Cardinals give them up at 10% (19th).
The Rams lead the series 29–21 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | ARI 18 at LA 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | ARI 20 at LA 37 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | LA 45 at ARI 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | ARI 9 at LA 13 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | LA 10 at ARI 41 |
2026 records
| Cardinals | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Division | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 2–4 | 2–2 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Home | 0–3 | 2–3 |
| Away | 3–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | LLWLW | WLLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 21.9 – 29.8 | 24.3 – 21.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.05#9 | +0.08#26 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#5 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#23 | 10%#19 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.07#15 | +0.23#31 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#5 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.01#7 | -0.14#7 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#4 | 3.9#13 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#5 | 41%#17 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#6 | 67%#20 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#10 | 152#21 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 66#6 | 56#19 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 10.1#4 | 7.0#12 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 43#8 | 30#13 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.