2026
Week 7 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Broncos offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Broncos, 8 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 30–16 and were favored the whole way, never below 61%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 3:57, 12 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 3:57DENB.Nix scrambles up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 80%
- 2Q3 3:54ARIJ.Brissett pass short right to T.McBride for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7% → 14%
- 3Q1 0:54ARIZ.Knight left tackle pushed ob at DEN 16 for 29 yards (J.Barron). PENALTY on DEN-B.Jones, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 8 yards,…27% → 35%
- 4Q3 10:36DENB.Nix pass short left to R.Harvey for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.88% → 94%
- 5Q1 14:53DENB.Nix pass deep middle to C.Sutton to ARI 39 for 20 yards (B.Baker).70% → 75%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Nix led the Broncos at +9.2 EPA (15 of 29 for 222). T.McBride led the Cardinals at +6.5 EPA (10 catches for 111).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 15/29 | 222 | 1 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Coleman49% | 9 | 35% | 54 | +2.5 | |
| B.Nix100% | 7 | 27% | 73 | 1 | +4.7 |
| J.Dobbins23% | 6 | 23% | 23 | 1 | +0.4 |
| R.Harvey26% | 3 | 12% | 6 | -0.9 | |
| M.Jr.26% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle56% | 7 | 28% | 4 | 48 | +1.6 | |
| C.Sutton70% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 45 | +1.3 | |
| E.Engram39% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 2 | -2.3 | |
| M.Jr.26% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 53 | +3.2 | |
| T.Franklin46% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| R.Harvey26% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 54 | 1 | +3.8 |
| J.Coleman49% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 15 | +1.6 | |
| L.Humphrey25% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.3 | |
| A.Trautman61% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense A.Singleton 1 sack, M.Roach 1 sack, S.Jones 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 3/3 FG (long 48)
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 27/48 | 272 | 1 | 3 | -7.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Allgeier47% | 8 | 33% | 19 | -3.7 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 7 | 29% | 16 | +3.9 | |
| B.Knight53% | 7 | 29% | 48 | -1.0 | |
| M.Wilson90% | 2 | 8% | 11 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride93% | 13 | 30% | 10 | 111 | 1 | +6.5 |
| M.Wilson90% | 8 | 18% | 4 | 55 | +0.2 | |
| K.Bourne56% | 6 | 14% | 3 | 9 | -5.4 | |
| J.Brooks64% | 6 | 14% | 1 | 35 | -1.7 | |
| B.Knight53% | 5 | 11% | 3 | 15 | -3.5 | |
| T.Allgeier47% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 30 | +1.9 | |
| E.Higgins48% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 17 | +0.4 |
Defense D.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 3/3 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Broncos score a touchdown on 68% of red zone trips (8th). Cardinals allow 67% (20th).
Deep right is open
Cardinals are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.75 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Cardinals give up 7.0 targets a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 7.6. Broncos' tight ends produce 4.9 (31st).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Broncos gain 4.9 yards per play (26th). Cardinals give up 5.8 (24th), with the league at 5.4.
The Broncos lead the series 7–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | DEN 30 at ARI 16 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | ARI 15 at DEN 24 |
| 2018 · Wk 7 | DEN 45 at ARI 10 |
| 2014 · Wk 5 | ARI 20 at DEN 41 |
| 2010 · Wk 14 | DEN 13 at ARI 43 |
2026 records
| Broncos | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 3–5 |
| Division | 2–1 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 3–1 | 2–4 |
| Other conference | 3–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 4–0 | 0–3 |
| Away | 2–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | LLWLW |
| Streak | Won 4 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 21.5 – 20.6 | 21.9 – 29.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#21 | +0.08#26 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 38%#29 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#26 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#27 | 10%#19 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | +0.23#31 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#6 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#14 | -0.14#7 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#25 | 3.9#13 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 31%#32 | 41%#17 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#8 | 67%#20 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#29 | 152#21 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 28#31 | 56#19 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.9#31 | 7.0#12 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#3 | 30#13 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.