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DOWN X DOWN › week 7 › Broncos at Cardinals

Updated Nov 2, 5:48 PM ET

2026

Week 7 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium

Cardinals offensevsBroncos defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Cardinals, 8 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

DEN offense ARI offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · DEN 30 · ARI 16

The Broncos won 30–16 and were favored the whole way, never below 61%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 3:57, 12 points for the Broncos.

At kickoffDEN 68%DEN by 4.5 on the line

DEN low point61%Q2 6:19 · up 6⁠–⁠3

Swings past 50%0times the favorite changed

Biggest swing12 ptsDEN · Q2 3:57

ARI wins50%DEN wins

12345DEN low 61%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 3:57DENB.Nix scrambles up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 80%+12
2Q3 3:54ARIJ.Brissett pass short right to T.McBride for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7% → 14%+7
3Q1 0:54ARIZ.Knight left tackle pushed ob at DEN 16 for 29 yards (J.Barron). PENALTY on DEN-B.Jones, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 8 yards,…27% → 35%+7
4Q3 10:36DENB.Nix pass short left to R.Harvey for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.88% → 94%+6
5Q1 14:53DENB.Nix pass deep middle to C.Sutton to ARI 39 for 20 yards (B.Baker).70% → 75%+5

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 7

B.Nix led the Broncos at +9.2 EPA (15 of 29 for 222). T.McBride led the Cardinals at +6.5 EPA (10 catches for 111).

Broncos

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
B.Nix100%	15/29	222	1		1	+4.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Coleman49%	9	35%	54		+2.5
B.Nix100%	7	27%	73	1	+4.7
J.Dobbins23%	6	23%	23	1	+0.4
R.Harvey26%	3	12%	6		-0.9
M.Jr.26%	1	4%	3		-0.3

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Waddle56%	7	28%	4	48		+1.6
C.Sutton70%	5	20%	3	45		+1.3
E.Engram39%	3	12%	1	2		-2.3
M.Jr.26%	2	8%	2	53		+3.2
T.Franklin46%	2	8%	0	0		-1.2
R.Harvey26%	2	8%	2	54	1	+3.8
J.Coleman49%	2	8%	2	15		+1.6
L.Humphrey25%	1	4%	1	5		+0.3
A.Trautman61%	1	4%	0	0		-0.5

Defense A.Singleton 1 sack, M.Roach 1 sack, S.Jones 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 3/3 FG (long 48)

Cardinals

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Brissett100%	27/48	272	1		3	-7.8

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
T.Allgeier47%	8	33%	19	-3.7
J.Brissett100%	7	29%	16	+3.9
B.Knight53%	7	29%	48	-1.0
M.Wilson90%	2	8%	11	+0.2

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.McBride93%	13	30%	10	111	1	+6.5
M.Wilson90%	8	18%	4	55		+0.2
K.Bourne56%	6	14%	3	9		-5.4
J.Brooks64%	6	14%	1	35		-1.7
B.Knight53%	5	11%	3	15		-3.5
T.Allgeier47%	3	7%	3	30		+1.9
E.Higgins48%	3	7%	3	17		+0.4

Defense D.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 3/3 FG (long 41)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Tight ends feast

Broncos give up 8.8 targets a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 7.6. Cardinals' tight ends produce 13.5 (2nd).

Opportunity

Short middle is open

Broncos are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.27 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 18% of their throws there.

Watch out

Field goals, not touchdowns

Cardinals score a touchdown on 50% of red zone trips (30th). Broncos allow 48% (8th).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Cardinals average -0.02 EPA per play (19th). Broncos allow -0.03 (12th). League average is +0.00.

The series · Broncos and Cardinals since 1999, and this season's records8 meetings

The Broncos lead the series 7–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.

Broncos at home3–0the Broncos' record

In Arizona4–1the Broncos' record

Most pointsBroncos 45 · Cardinals 432018 · 2010

Biggest winBroncos by 35 · Cardinals by 302018 · 2010

The last 5

2026 · Wk 7	DEN 30 at ARI 16
2022 · Wk 15	ARI 15 at DEN 24
2018 · Wk 7	DEN 45 at ARI 10
2014 · Wk 5	ARI 20 at DEN 41
2010 · Wk 14	DEN 13 at ARI 43

2026 records

	Broncos	Cardinals
Overall	6–2	3–5
Division	2–1	1–2
Conference	3–1	2–4
Other conference	3–1	1–1
Home	4–0	0–3
Away	2–2	3–2
Last 5	LWWWW	LLWLW
Streak	Won 4	Won 1
Points a game	21.5 – 20.6	21.9 – 29.8

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · ARI offense against DEN defense

Stat	ARI off	DEN def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.02#19	-0.03#12	+0.00
Success rate	44%#13	40%#6	44%
Yards per play	4.9#27	5.2#10	5.4
Explosive play rate	6%#31	9%#15	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.02#21	-0.06#6	+0.03
Sack rate	6%#12	7%#14	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.05#12	-0.02#26	-0.08
Yards per carry	4.2#14	4.4#22	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	40%#17	43%#22	41%
Red zone TD rate	50%#30	48%#8	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	123#26	131#9	147
TE yards per game	91#2	68#26	55
TE targets per game	13.5#2	8.8#27	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	25#23	48#31	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Cardinals: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.066% of throws

+0.892% of throws

-0.099% of throws

Short

-0.0229% of throws

+0.2018% of throws

+0.1237% of throws

Broncos: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.2620 throws

-0.1210 throws

-0.0118 throws