2026
Week 8 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Broncos offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Broncos, 7 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 28–24 from as low as 7% (Q4 13:40, down 24–13). The game turned for good at Q4 0:09: K.Walker up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (J.Skinner) (42% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:04, 41 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:04KCP.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (M.Roach).60% → 100%
- 2Q4 2:31DENB.Nix pass short right to J.Coleman to KC 5 for 51 yards (N.Williams; N.Bolton).42% → 69%
- 3Q4 1:32KCP.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce to DEN 18 for 32 yards (D.Key).28% → 54%
- 4Q2 7:54KCP.Mahomes pass short left to E.Johnson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.McMillian].47% → 70%
- 5Q4 2:36KCH.Butker 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right28% → 42%
- ★Q4 0:09KCK.Walker up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (J.Skinner).turning point42% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +10.8 EPA (30 of 41 for 321). B.Nix led the Broncos at +8.2 EPA (20 of 32 for 222).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 30/41 | 321 | 3 | 2 | +10.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III81% | 21 | 88% | 69 | -0.9 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 2 | 8% | 6 | +0.0 | |
| E.Johnson19% | 1 | 4% | 15 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice57% | 8 | 21% | 7 | 53 | 1 | +2.8 |
| T.Kelce78% | 7 | 18% | 5 | 67 | +2.2 | |
| X.Worthy94% | 6 | 16% | 3 | 13 | -1.6 | |
| K.III81% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 15 | -0.2 | |
| E.Johnson19% | 5 | 13% | 5 | 128 | 1 | +9.5 |
| C.Allen45% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 20 | +2.1 | |
| N.Gray54% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 15 | 1 | +2.9 |
| J.Briningstool7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.4 | |
| J.Royals32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +0.2 |
Defense G.Karlaftis 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 1/2 FG (54 no good), 3/3 XP, 6 pts
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 20/32 | 222 | 2 | 1 | +7.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Coleman66% | 11 | 48% | 41 | 1 | +0.2 |
| J.Dobbins21% | 7 | 30% | 13 | -3.3 | |
| B.Nix100% | 3 | 13% | 4 | +0.8 | |
| M.Jr.29% | 2 | 9% | 19 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle45% | 6 | 21% | 3 | 39 | 1 | +2.2 |
| J.Coleman66% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 63 | +2.5 | |
| C.Sutton81% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 53 | +3.0 | |
| E.Engram48% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -2.7 | |
| M.Jr.29% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 10 | -1.8 | |
| A.Trautman56% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 30 | +2.8 | |
| N.Adkins31% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3.4 |
| T.Franklin71% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -1.7 | |
| L.Humphrey19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +1.7 | |
| A.Prentice21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +1.8 |
Defense A.Singleton 1 sack, M.Roach 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG, 2/2 XP, 8 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Broncos take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (6th). Chiefs get home on 4% (31st). League average is 7%.
Deep left is open
Chiefs are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.62 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Chiefs give up 121 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 147. Broncos' wide receivers produce 107 (29th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Broncos average -0.03 EPA per play (21st). Chiefs allow -0.04 (10th). League average is +0.00.
The Chiefs lead the series 31–25 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | KC 24 at DEN 28 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | DEN 10 at KC 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DEN 20 at KC 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | KC 19 at DEN 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | KC 0 at DEN 38 |
2026 records
| Chiefs | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 6–2 |
| Division | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 3–1 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Home | 3–0 | 4–0 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | LWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 23.9 – 18.7 | 21.5 – 20.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#21 | -0.04#10 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 38%#29 | 40%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#26 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#27 | 8%#9 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.01#13 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#6 | 4%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#15 | -0.13#8 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#25 | 3.4#1 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 31%#32 | 40%#15 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#8 | 42%#4 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#29 | 121#3 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 28#31 | 66#25 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.9#31 | 10.0#31 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#3 | 42#26 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.