2026
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
vs
Bills offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 29–26 from as low as 16% (Q4 4:27, down 26–21). The Bills had been 74% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 1:55: D.Maye pass deep right to E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN (34% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:14, 28 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:14NEJ.Allen pass deep left intended for J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by C.Woodson at NE 19. C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (J.Palmer).59% → 87%
- 2Q4 1:55NED.Maye pass deep right to E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point34% → 56%
- 3Q2 0:16BUFD.Maye pass short left intended for R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by D.Alford at NE 46. D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (J.Wilson).60% → 78%
- 4Q4 5:06BUFJ.Allen pass short left to K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (K.Byard).54% → 70%
- 5Q4 4:33BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.70% → 84%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +15.8 EPA (22 of 37 for 269). K.Coleman led the Bills at +8.9 EPA (6 catches for 116).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 22/37 | 269 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson37% | 14 | 40% | 42 | -1.9 | |
| R.Stevenson66% | 13 | 37% | 47 | 1 | -0.2 |
| D.Maye100% | 8 | 23% | 54 | +4.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Doubs64% | 9 | 25% | 6 | 58 | 2 | +5.8 |
| H.Henry64% | 5 | 14% | 5 | 62 | +4.2 | |
| R.Stevenson66% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 27 | 0.0 | |
| M.Hollins41% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 53 | +4.0 | |
| E.III45% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 42 | 1 | +4.3 |
| D.Douglas46% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 15 | +0.1 | |
| K.Williams25% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| T.Henderson37% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| E.Raridon58% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 12 | +0.7 |
Defense C.Woodson 1 INT, E.Ponder 1 sack
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 23/33 | 253 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook59% | 12 | 60% | 75 | 1 | +3.7 |
| J.Allen100% | 5 | 25% | 4 | 1 | -0.1 |
| D.Moore39% | 1 | 5% | 6 | -0.6 | |
| T.Johnson32% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.2 | |
| R.Davis7% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir76% | 8 | 27% | 7 | 82 | +0.5 | |
| K.Coleman78% | 7 | 23% | 6 | 116 | 1 | +8.9 |
| J.Palmer59% | 4 | 13% | 1 | 3 | -5.3 | |
| D.Moore39% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 11 | +1.4 | |
| T.Johnson32% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 9 | +1.9 | |
| D.Knox61% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 13 | +0.6 | |
| J.Cook59% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 8 | -0.5 | |
| D.Kincaid59% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 7 | -1.4 | |
| R.Davis7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 |
Defense D.Alford 1 INT, E.Oliver 0.5 sacks, T.Parker 0.5 sacks · Kicking T.Bass 2/2 FG (long 38)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Bills gain +0.23 EPA per dropback (4th). Patriots allow +0.08 (22nd).
Deep left is open
Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Bills send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Bills take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (13th). Patriots get home on 8% (5th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.5 yards per play (2nd). Patriots give up 5.3 (12th), with the league at 5.4.
The Patriots lead the series 40–16 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | NE 29 at BUF 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | BUF 35 at NE 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 5 | NE 23 at BUF 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | BUF 16 at NE 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | NE 21 at BUF 24 |
2026 records
| Patriots | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 6–1 |
| Division | 3–0 | 0–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 2–0 |
| Home | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Away | 2–3 | 3–0 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 20.3 | 33.3 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.18#1 | +0.01#18 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#4 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.5#2 | 5.3#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 15%#1 | 9%#16 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#4 | +0.08#22 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 8%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#6 | -0.09#13 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#7 | 3.8#11 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#6 | 38%#10 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 72%#3 | 57%#12 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 145#17 | 152#23 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 64#9 | 52#14 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.1#19 | 7.9#20 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 46#7 | 31#14 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.