2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Jets, 8 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jets won 17–12 from as low as 22% (Q4 4:13, down 12–10). The game turned for good at Q4 4:01: (Punt formation) C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-T.Wallace at CLE 23 (32% → 66%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:20, 34 points for the Browns.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:20NYJG.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (C.Schwesinger) [C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-A.Huntington at NYJ 48.…45% → 78%
- 2Q4 4:01CLE(Punt formation) C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-T.Wallace at CLE 23.turning point32% → 66%
- 3Q4 6:21CLED.Watson pass deep left to D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.39% → 61%
- 4Q4 3:07NYJB.Allen left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.60% → 79%
- 5Q4 7:13CLED.Watson scrambles up the middle pushed ob at NYJ 29 for 20 yards (D.Davis).31% → 44%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
I.Bond led the Browns at +3.7 EPA (3 catches for 74). G.Wilson led the Jets at +6.3 EPA (7 catches for 104).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Watson100% | 15/33 | 155 | 1 | 8 | -12.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins53% | 14 | 58% | 44 | -2.7 | |
| D.Watson100% | 6 | 25% | 40 | 0.0 | |
| R.Sanders29% | 3 | 13% | 12 | +0.1 | |
| C.Bojorquez | 1 | 4% | 0 | -4.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jeudy81% | 7 | 22% | 3 | 19 | -1.4 | |
| I.Bond72% | 7 | 22% | 3 | 74 | +3.7 | |
| D.Boston91% | 7 | 22% | 3 | 46 | 1 | +2.9 |
| H.Jr.93% | 4 | 13% | 1 | 4 | -3.6 | |
| Q.Judkins53% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 6 | -1.9 | |
| J.McLaughlin21% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| R.Sanders29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |
| K.Concepcion16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +1.8 |
Defense M.Collins 1.5 sacks, S.Kamara 1 sack, C.Schwesinger 1 sack, A.Huntington 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/2 FG, 0/1 XP, 6 pts
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 17/30 | 182 | 1 | 4 | -11.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Allen86% | 24 | 75% | 116 | 1 | +0.9 |
| G.Smith100% | 5 | 16% | 7 | -1.1 | |
| I.Davis14% | 2 | 6% | 8 | -0.2 | |
| I.Williams61% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson93% | 11 | 38% | 7 | 104 | 1 | +6.3 |
| B.Allen86% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 0 | -2.7 | |
| T.Patrick93% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 26 | +1.5 | |
| M.Taylor59% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 24 | +1.5 | |
| K.Sadiq19% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 3 | -6.2 | |
| I.Williams61% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 16 | -1.0 | |
| I.Davis14% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 9 | -1.0 | |
| J.Woods36% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense D.Bailey 3 sacks, D.Belton 1 sack, W.IV 1 sack, J.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking J.Sanders 1/1 FG, 2/2 XP, 5 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Jets average 4.3 yards per carry (12th). Browns allow 4.7 (28th).
Deep left is open
Browns are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Jets send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Jets score a touchdown on 46% of red zone trips (32nd). Browns allow 52% (11th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jets succeed on 46% of plays (11th) against a defense that allows 42% (10th).
The Jets lead the series 10–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | CLE 12 at NYJ 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | CLE 20 at NYJ 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | NYJ 20 at CLE 37 |
| 2022 · Wk 2 | NYJ 31 at CLE 30 |
| 2020 · Wk 16 | CLE 16 at NYJ 23 |
2026 records
| Browns | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Division | 2–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–3 |
| Home | 3–0 | 1–3 |
| Away | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | WLWWL | LWLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 3 |
| Points a game | 17.4 – 21.6 | 21.3 – 23.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#11 | -0.02#14 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#11 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 5.3#11 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#5 | 12%#32 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#10 | -0.03#9 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#19 | -0.02#27 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#12 | 4.7#28 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 40%#14 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#32 | 52%#11 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#12 | 138#13 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#21 | 59#23 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.9#12 | 8.0#21 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 18#1 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.