DOWN X DOWN › week 6 › Saints at Giants

Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET

2026

Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium

Saints offensevsGiants defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Saints, 7 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

NO offense NYG offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · NO 34 · NYG 27

The Saints won 34–27 from as low as 23% (Q2 3:18, down 7⁠–⁠0). The game turned for good at Q2 1:18: D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-O.Delp at NYG 28 (35% → 51%).

At kickoffNO 54%NO by 1.5 on the line

NO low point23%Q2 3:18 · down 7⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%4times the favorite changed

Biggest swing15 ptsNO · Q2 1:18

NYG wins50%NO wins

12345Turning pointNO low 23%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 1:18NYGD.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-O.Delp at NYG 28.turning point35% → 51%+15 NO
2Q2 0:05NOT.Shough pass short middle to B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 63%+11 NO
3Q2 1:23NOD.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD26% → 35%+10 NO
4Q1 5:23NYGJ.Winston pass short right to T.Tracy for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [C.Jordan].49% → 58%+9 NYG
5Q2 1:11NOT.Shough scrambles right end to NYG 3 for 25 yards (T.Edmunds; G.Newsome).51% → 59%+8 NO

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 6

T.Shough led the Saints at +3.9 EPA (16 of 30 for 144). J.McCarthy led the Giants at +5.3 EPA (11 of 21 for 243).

Saints

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Shough97%	16/30	144	3			-0.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
K.Miller44%	20	53%	70		-4.1
A.Kamara26%	7	18%	34		+0.1
C.Donaldson33%	6	16%	39		-2.3
T.Shough97%	5	13%	32	1	+4.4

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
C.Olave58%	7	23%	4	43	1	+1.1
D.Vele92%	6	20%	3	42		-0.6
A.Kamara26%	4	13%	2	35	1	+1.9
B.Lance50%	4	13%	2	9	1	+2.0
J.Johnson58%	2	7%	0	0		-1.9
K.Miller44%	2	7%	2	0		-1.6
O.Delp43%	2	7%	2	10		-0.2
N.Fant58%	1	3%	0	0		-0.5
B.Brown26%	1	3%	1	5		-0.5
C.Donaldson33%	1	3%	0	0		-0.3

Defense M.Emerson 2 INT, C.Granderson 1.5 sacks, J.Blackmon 1 INT, C.Young 1.5 sacks · Kicking D.Carlson 2/3 FG (55 no good), 4/4 XP, 10 pts

Giants

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Winston60%	14/26	152	1	2	4	-12.0
J.McCarthy40%	11/21	243	1	1	1	+5.0

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
T.Jr.38%	6	30%	18	1	+0.4
D.Singletary40%	4	20%	14		-0.4
N.Harris14%	4	20%	2		-3.0
J.Winston60%	3	15%	4		+2.6
J.McCarthy40%	2	10%	26		+0.3
D.Mooney36%	1	5%	20		+1.5

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
M.Nabers86%	15	35%	12	165		+2.4
I.Likely91%	11	26%	6	99	1	-1.4
M.Fields94%	8	19%	2	19		-5.8
C.Jones26%	3	7%	2	66		+4.2
T.Jr.38%	3	7%	2	27	1	+2.1
D.Mooney36%	2	5%	0	0		-1.0
D.Singletary40%	1	2%	1	19		+0.8

Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking D.Zvada 2/2 FG, 1/1 XP, 7 pts

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Red zone touchdowns

Saints score a touchdown on 74% of red zone trips (2nd). Giants allow 83% (31st).

Opportunity

Short middle is open

Giants are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.46 EPA per attempt. Saints send 10% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Giants give up 45 yards a game to tight ends (8th), against a league average of 55. Saints' tight ends produce 51 (20th).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Saints average -0.04 EPA per play (22nd). Giants allow +0.01 (16th). League average is +0.00.

The series · Saints and Giants since 1999, and this season's records16 meetings

The Saints lead the series 10–6 since 1999. They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.

Saints at home6–2the Saints' record

In New York4–4the Saints' record

Most pointsSaints 52 · Giants 522015 · 2012

Biggest winSaints by 38 · Giants by 282003 · 1999

The last 5

2026 · Wk 6	NO 34 at NYG 27
2025 · Wk 5	NYG 14 at NO 26
2024 · Wk 14	NO 14 at NYG 11
2023 · Wk 15	NYG 6 at NO 24
2021 · Wk 4 · OT	NYG 27 at NO 21

2026 records

	Saints	Giants
Overall	2–5	4–2–1
Division	0–1	1–0–1
Conference	1–3	2–2–1
Other conference	1–2	2–0
Home	0–4	3–1
Away	2–1	1–1–1
Last 5	LLLWL	WWTLW
Streak	Lost 1	Won 1
Points a game	23.1 – 27.7	23.3 – 23.0

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · NO offense against NYG defense

Stat	NO off	NYG def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.04#22	+0.01#16	+0.00
Success rate	42%#22	43%#12	44%
Yards per play	4.9#29	5.4#15	5.4
Explosive play rate	7%#30	10%#18	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.01#19	-0.01#14	+0.03
Sack rate	5%#10	4%#30	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.16#26	-0.07#21	-0.08
Yards per carry	3.2#31	4.5#24	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	43%#10	40%#13	41%
Red zone TD rate	74%#2	83%#31	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	162#9	127#7	147
TE yards per game	51#20	45#8	55
TE targets per game	8.3#10	8.1#24	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	33#13	21#5	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Saints: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.137% of throws

+0.893% of throws

+1.026% of throws

Short

+0.1935% of throws

+0.0510% of throws

-0.0340% of throws

Giants: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.3118 throws

+0.627 throws

-0.0516 throws