2026
Week 7 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Patriots offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Patriots, 7 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 30–24 and were favored the whole way, never below 55%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:03, 14 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:03NED.Maye pass short right to R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.8% → 22%
- 2Q2 3:32CHID.Maye pass deep right intended for E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by D.Jackson at CHI -7. Touchback.66% → 76%
- 3Q3 3:52NED.Maye pass deep right to E.Raridon for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 19%
- 4Q2 11:37NED.Maye scrambles right guard to CHI 1 for 6 yards (C.Phillips). New England challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was…22% → 31%
- 5Q2 0:21CHIC.Williams pass short right to L.Burden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.84% → 93%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +11.9 EPA (24 of 31 for 321). L.III led the Bears at +13.1 EPA (4 catches for 130).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 24/31 | 321 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +10.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson69% | 6 | 35% | 22 | -2.2 | |
| D.Maye100% | 4 | 24% | 26 | 1 | +1.3 |
| C.Kiner11% | 4 | 24% | 13 | -1.1 | |
| T.Henderson24% | 3 | 18% | 9 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Henry76% | 7 | 23% | 7 | 71 | +5.4 | |
| A.Brown91% | 6 | 20% | 3 | 48 | +1.5 | |
| R.Stevenson69% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 93 | 1 | +8.7 |
| D.Douglas65% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 23 | +0.3 | |
| E.Raridon54% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 56 | 1 | +1.0 |
| T.Henderson24% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 14 | 0.0 | |
| K.Williams39% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| E.III63% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +1.0 |
Defense C.Barmore 1 sack, M.Jones 1 sack, L.III 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 47)
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 22/33 | 308 | 2 | 3 | +13.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift86% | 22 | 73% | 78 | 1 | -1.4 |
| C.Williams100% | 5 | 17% | 18 | -1.0 | |
| R.Johnson14% | 2 | 7% | 13 | -0.2 | |
| L.III61% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Loveland84% | 12 | 40% | 7 | 69 | 1 | +2.8 |
| R.Odunze94% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 69 | +6.3 | |
| D.Swift86% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 12 | -2.4 | |
| L.III61% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 130 | 1 | +12.8 |
| C.Kmet55% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 28 | +1.8 | |
| K.Raymond70% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.2 |
Defense D.Jackson 1 INT, K.Gordon 1 sack, D.Hardy 0.5 sacks, D.Thieneman 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Santos 3/4 FG (long 58)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Bears give up 57 yards a game to tight ends (21st), against a league average of 55. Patriots' tight ends produce 62 (10th).
Deep left is open
Bears are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bears give up 6.6 targets a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 7.6. Patriots' tight ends produce 6.8 (22nd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Patriots succeed on 46% of plays (10th) against a defense that allows 41% (7th).
The Patriots lead the series 6–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | NE 24 at CHI 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 10 | NE 19 at CHI 3 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | CHI 33 at NE 14 |
| 2018 · Wk 7 | NE 38 at CHI 31 |
| 2014 · Wk 8 | CHI 23 at NE 51 |
2026 records
| Patriots | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Division | 3–0 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 2–0 |
| Home | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Away | 2–3 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WWLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 20.3 | 25.7 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#8 | -0.01#15 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 41%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#8 | 11%#26 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.15#8 | +0.01#15 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 9%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.14#23 | -0.08#15 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#20 | 4.2#19 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#11 | 26%#1 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#26 | 69%#25 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#11 | 149#19 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#10 | 57#21 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.8#22 | 6.6#7 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#12 | 35#21 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.