2026
Week 7 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Bears offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Bears, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 30–24 and were favored the whole way, never below 55%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:03, 14 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:03NED.Maye pass short right to R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.8% → 22%
- 2Q2 3:32CHID.Maye pass deep right intended for E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by D.Jackson at CHI -7. Touchback.66% → 76%
- 3Q3 3:52NED.Maye pass deep right to E.Raridon for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 19%
- 4Q2 11:37NED.Maye scrambles right guard to CHI 1 for 6 yards (C.Phillips). New England challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was…22% → 31%
- 5Q2 0:21CHIC.Williams pass short right to L.Burden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.84% → 93%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +11.9 EPA (24 of 31 for 321). L.III led the Bears at +13.1 EPA (4 catches for 130).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 24/31 | 321 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +10.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson69% | 6 | 35% | 22 | -2.2 | |
| D.Maye100% | 4 | 24% | 26 | 1 | +1.3 |
| C.Kiner11% | 4 | 24% | 13 | -1.1 | |
| T.Henderson24% | 3 | 18% | 9 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Henry76% | 7 | 23% | 7 | 71 | +5.4 | |
| A.Brown91% | 6 | 20% | 3 | 48 | +1.5 | |
| R.Stevenson69% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 93 | 1 | +8.7 |
| D.Douglas65% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 23 | +0.3 | |
| E.Raridon54% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 56 | 1 | +1.0 |
| T.Henderson24% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 14 | 0.0 | |
| K.Williams39% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| E.III63% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +1.0 |
Defense C.Barmore 1 sack, M.Jones 1 sack, L.III 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 47)
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 22/33 | 308 | 2 | 3 | +13.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift86% | 22 | 73% | 78 | 1 | -1.4 |
| C.Williams100% | 5 | 17% | 18 | -1.0 | |
| R.Johnson14% | 2 | 7% | 13 | -0.2 | |
| L.III61% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Loveland84% | 12 | 40% | 7 | 69 | 1 | +2.8 |
| R.Odunze94% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 69 | +6.3 | |
| D.Swift86% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 12 | -2.4 | |
| L.III61% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 130 | 1 | +12.8 |
| C.Kmet55% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 28 | +1.8 | |
| K.Raymond70% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.2 |
Defense D.Jackson 1 INT, K.Gordon 1 sack, D.Hardy 0.5 sacks, D.Thieneman 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Santos 3/4 FG (long 58)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Patriots give up 152 yards a game to wide receivers (23rd), against a league average of 147. Bears' wide receivers produce 166 (8th).
Deep left is open
Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Bears send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Bears take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (17th). Patriots get home on 8% (5th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bears gain 5.5 yards per play (15th). Patriots give up 5.3 (12th), with the league at 5.4.
The Patriots lead the series 6–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | NE 24 at CHI 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 10 | NE 19 at CHI 3 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | CHI 33 at NE 14 |
| 2018 · Wk 7 | NE 38 at CHI 31 |
| 2014 · Wk 8 | CHI 23 at NE 51 |
2026 records
| Patriots | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Division | 3–0 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 2–0 |
| Home | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Away | 2–3 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 20.3 | 26.8 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#8 | +0.01#18 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 47%#8 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#15 | 5.3#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#10 | 9%#16 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.11#12 | +0.08#22 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#17 | 8%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#11 | -0.09#14 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#11 | 3.8#11 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#7 | 38%#10 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#18 | 57%#12 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 166#8 | 152#23 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 54#18 | 52#15 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 7.9#20 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#11 | 31#15 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.