2026
Week 1 · Thursday 8:35 PM ET · Melbourne Cricket Ground
vs
Rams offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Rams, 7 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 27–7; their low point was 27% at Q2 9:23. The Rams had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 3:10: M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to P.Nacua. PENALTY on LA-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 42 - No Play (46% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 4:35, 12 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 4:35SFB.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.41% → 53%
- 2Q1 1:31LAM.Stafford pass deep right to P.Nacua to SF 8 for 41 yards (M.Sigle; R.Green).54% → 63%
- 3Q3 3:27SFB.Purdy pass short left to L.Farrell to SF 15 for 14 yards (K.Kinchens).71% → 79%
- 4Q1 2:01LAC.Waitman punts 43 yards to LA 32 X.Smith to LA 43 for 11 yards (J.Dugger; A.Davis).46% → 54%
- 5Q2 12:09LAB.Purdy pass short right intended for G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by Q.Lake at LA 31. Q.Lake to LA 31 for no gain (G.Kittle).63% → 71%
- ★Q2 3:10SFM.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to P.Nacua. PENALTY on LA-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 42 - No Play.turning point46% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Evans led the 49ers at +8.2 EPA (6 catches for 49). K.Williams led the Rams at +1.5 EPA (11 carries for 41).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 25/34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Black43% | 14 | 47% | 65 | +0.3 | |
| C.McCaffrey55% | 10 | 33% | 68 | +2.7 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 5 | 17% | 29 | +3.2 | |
| D.Sr.42% | 1 | 3% | 12 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey55% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 20 | -4.9 | |
| M.Evans75% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 49 | 1 | +8.2 |
| D.Sr.42% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 48 | 1 | +2.9 |
| G.Kittle46% | 5 | 15% | 2 | 12 | -5.6 | |
| D.Robinson63% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 50 | 1 | +3.0 |
| L.Farrell71% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 19 | +1.5 | |
| J.Brendel | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| K.Black43% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.2 |
Defense R.Green 1 INT · Kicking E.Pineiro 2/3 FG (long 56)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford84% | 15/25 | 155 | 1 | -5.6 | ||
| S.Bennett16% | 2/3 | 13 | +0.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams64% | 11 | 38% | 41 | 1 | +1.1 |
| B.Corum23% | 10 | 34% | 54 | +0.8 | |
| R.Rivers13% | 5 | 17% | 19 | -2.7 | |
| M.Stafford84% | 2 | 7% | -1 | -3.8 | |
| S.Bennett16% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua70% | 9 | 33% | 5 | 74 | -2.6 | |
| D.Adams54% | 6 | 22% | 3 | 26 | -1.7 | |
| K.Williams64% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 24 | +0.4 | |
| T.Higbee20% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 12 | -4.7 | |
| C.Parkinson77% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 6 | -0.3 | |
| R.Rivers13% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.4 | |
| D.Allen34% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +1.2 | |
| J.Whittington41% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.3 | |
| K.Mumpfield26% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| T.Ferguson51% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -2.8 |
Defense Q.Lake 1 INT
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
49ers give up 49 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 43 (8th).
Short left is open
49ers are worst against short left throws, allowing +0.36 EPA per attempt. Rams send 28% of their throws there.
Nowhere to run
Rams' run game is 7th in EPA per carry (+0.01). 49ers allow -0.18 (2nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Rams average +0.05 EPA per play (9th). 49ers allow -0.05 (8th). League average is +0.00.
The 49ers lead the series 31–24–1 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | SF 27 at LA 7 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | LA 42 at SF 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 5 · OT | SF 26 at LA 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | LA 12 at SF 6 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | SF 24 at LA 27 |
2026 records
| 49ers | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 4–4 |
| Division | 3–0 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 2–2 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 2–2 |
| Home | 4–0 | 2–3 |
| Away | 2–1 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WLLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 28.1 – 19.9 | 24.3 – 21.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.05#9 | -0.05#8 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#5 | 44%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#23 | 4%#1 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.07#15 | +0.04#18 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#5 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.01#7 | -0.18#2 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#4 | 3.6#7 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#5 | 38%#11 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#6 | 48%#7 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#10 | 132#11 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 66#6 | 44#7 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 10.1#4 | 7.9#19 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 43#8 | 49#32 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.