2026
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
vs
Titans offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Titans, 8 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jets won 23–10; their low point was 48% at Q1 15:00. The Titans had been 52% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 3:29: A.McNamara punts 45 yards to TEN 37, downed by NYJ-F.Mauigoa. TEN-C.Dike was injured during the play (50% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 5:03, 11 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 5:03TENJ.Sanders kicks 55 yards from NYJ 35 to TEN 10. C.Dike to TEN 30 for 20 yards (M.McCrary-Ball). FUMBLES (M.McCrary-Ball), RECOVERED by…66% → 77%
- 2Q1 12:10NYJG.Smith pass short left to O.Cooper to TEN 4 for 30 yards (A.Taylor; J.Johnson).50% → 61%
- 3Q2 2:44NYJJ.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left28% → 38%
- 4Q3 11:14NYJG.Smith pass deep right to A.Mitchell to TEN 11 for 40 yards (A.Hooker).77% → 85%
- 5Q1 4:11NYJG.Smith FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 19, and recovers at NYJ 18.44% → 50%
- ★Q1 3:29NYJA.McNamara punts 45 yards to TEN 37, downed by NYJ-F.Mauigoa. TEN-C.Dike was injured during the play.turning point50% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Wilson led the Jets at +5.5 EPA (6 catches for 79). W.Robinson led the Titans at +3.0 EPA (5 catches for 38).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 19/24 | 215 | +9.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall58% | 22 | 56% | 102 | 1 | +2.4 |
| B.Allen40% | 10 | 26% | 40 | -0.6 | |
| G.Smith100% | 6 | 15% | 7 | -5.3 | |
| K.Sadiq42% | 1 | 3% | 3 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson75% | 7 | 30% | 6 | 79 | +5.5 | |
| A.Mitchell69% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 60 | +3.1 | |
| M.Taylor66% | 3 | 13% | 2 | -2 | -2.4 | |
| K.Sadiq42% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 21 | +0.5 | |
| B.Hall58% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 16 | +1.2 | |
| J.Ruckert43% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 | |
| I.Williams60% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.2 | |
| B.Allen40% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| A.Smith3% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| O.Jr.7% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 30 | +3.6 |
Defense K.Enagbare 1 sack, W.IV 1 sack, D.Bailey 1 sack · Kicking J.Sanders 3/4 FG (54 no good), 2/2 XP, 11 pts
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 19/32 | 140 | 1 | 3 | -7.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard52% | 7 | 50% | 35 | -0.5 | |
| C.Ward100% | 4 | 29% | 21 | +2.5 | |
| T.Spears50% | 3 | 21% | 12 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson82% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 38 | +3.0 | |
| C.Tate88% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 38 | +0.3 | |
| G.Helm76% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 28 | -0.9 | |
| T.Spears50% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 12 | -2.0 | |
| E.Ayomanor52% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 11 | 1 | +1.2 |
| T.Pollard52% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -1 | -1.6 | |
| D.Bellinger28% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | -0.4 | |
| C.Dike8% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking J.Slye 1/1 FG, 1/1 XP, 4 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Titans average 4.2 yards per carry (13th). Jets allow 3.9 (15th).
Deep left is open
Jets are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.53 EPA per attempt. Titans send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Jets give up 27 yards a game to running backs (11th), against a league average of 32. Titans' running backs produce 19 (27th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Titans succeed on 41% of plays (23rd) against a defense that allows 45% (24th).
The Jets lead the series 9–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2003). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | NYJ 23 at TEN 10 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | NYJ 24 at TEN 17 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 · OT | TEN 24 at NYJ 27 |
| 2018 · Wk 13 | NYJ 22 at TEN 26 |
| 2015 · Wk 14 | TEN 8 at NYJ 30 |
2026 records
| Jets | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| Division | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 1–5 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 0–2 |
| Home | 1–3 | 0–4 |
| Away | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | LWLLL | LLWLL |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 23.5 | 18.0 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TEN off | Favors TEN · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#27 | +0.02#19 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#23 | 45%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#28 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#28 | 9%#11 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.13#27 | +0.12#25 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#18 | -0.14#7 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#13 | 3.9#15 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 36%#28 | 41%#16 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#24 | 64%#20 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 138#18 | 121#5 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 29#30 | 60#24 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.3#27 | 7.8#17 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 19#27 | 27#11 | 32 | |
Titans: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.