2026
Week 4 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field
vs
Browns offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Browns, 8 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Browns won 27–24 from as low as 20% (Q2 15:00, down 7–0). The Steelers had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 6:46: A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to M.Pittman (T.Campbell) (49% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:15, 21 points for the Browns.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:15CLEA.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD69% → 90%
- 2Q4 1:51PITA.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to D.Washington (E.McNeil-Warren). PENALTY on CLE-E.McNeil-Warren, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards,…11% → 27%
- 3Q4 1:42PITTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. A.Rodgers rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.28% → 40%
- 4Q2 12:22CLEJ.McLaughlin right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.26% → 38%
- 5Q2 10:38CLED.Watson pass deep left to D.Boston to PIT 14 for 60 yards (D.Everette).39% → 49%
- ★Q2 6:46CLEA.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to M.Pittman (T.Campbell).turning point49% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Metcalf led the Steelers at +5.6 EPA (5 catches for 115). D.Watson led the Browns at +5.4 EPA (24 of 33 for 268).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 22/40 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 5 | +2.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren97% | 17 | 89% | 93 | +1.7 | |
| T.Homer3% | 2 | 11% | -1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf97% | 9 | 23% | 5 | 115 | +5.6 | |
| J.Warren97% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 33 | -0.2 | |
| R.Wilson31% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 74 | 1 | +5.5 |
| P.Freiermuth75% | 5 | 13% | 3 | 17 | 1 | +0.4 |
| D.Washington71% | 5 | 13% | 3 | 27 | 1 | +0.4 |
| M.Pittman72% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 15 | -0.3 | |
| B.Skowronek11% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 7 | -0.3 | |
| G.Bernard40% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 11 | +0.5 |
Defense R.Spears-Jennings 1 INT, T.Watt 1 sack, P.Wilson 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 1/2 FG (long 31)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Watson100% | 24/33 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +9.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins66% | 17 | 63% | 53 | 1 | -2.1 |
| D.Watson100% | 7 | 26% | 22 | -3.8 | |
| R.Sanders34% | 2 | 7% | 9 | -0.2 | |
| J.McLaughlin2% | 1 | 4% | 28 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Concepcion92% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 64 | +2.5 | |
| Q.Judkins66% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 43 | +2.8 | |
| D.Boston95% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 89 | +1.5 | |
| H.Jr.89% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 27 | 1 | +3.3 |
| J.Jeudy38% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 36 | +2.1 | |
| R.Sanders34% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 7 | -0.1 | |
| I.Bond11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.9 |
Defense D.Ward 1 INT, G.Delpit 1 INT, M.Collins 1 sack, S.Williams 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/2 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Steelers give up 47 yards a game to running backs (30th), against a league average of 32. Browns' running backs produce 40 (9th).
Deep right is open
Steelers are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Browns send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Browns score a touchdown on 47% of red zone trips (31st). Steelers allow 38% (2nd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Browns succeed on 42% of plays (18th) against a defense that allows 42% (9th).
The Steelers lead the series 43–14–1 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium: the Steelers won 27–6. Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback for the Steelers and Deshaun Watson for the Browns; Mike McCarthy and Todd Monken coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | CLE 6 at PIT 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 4 | PIT 24 at CLE 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | PIT 6 at CLE 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 6 | CLE 9 at PIT 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | CLE 14 at PIT 27 |
2026 records
| Steelers | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Division | 2–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 3–0 | 2–0 |
| Home | 4–0 | 3–0 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | WLWWL |
| Streak | Won 4 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.5 – 18.0 | 17.4 – 21.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.08#25 | -0.07#6 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#18 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#23 | 5.0#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#24 | 9%#12 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#23 | -0.06#8 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 12%#32 | 9%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.19#27 | -0.16#5 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#27 | 3.4#3 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 32%#30 | 35%#8 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#31 | 38%#2 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#23 | 139#14 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#16 | 57#22 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.0#20 | 6.6#9 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 40#9 | 47#30 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.