2026
Week 6 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Bills offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 8 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 33–30 and were favored the whole way, never below 56%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 8:13, 17 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 8:13LVK.Cousins pass short right to T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 36%
- 2Q4 4:56BUFJ.Allen pass short left to J.Cook pushed ob at LV 3 for 26 yards (J.Chinn).72% → 85%
- 3Q2 7:17BUFJ.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.73% → 81%
- 4Q3 0:03LVK.Cousins pass short middle to B.Bowers to BUF 2 for 15 yards (C.Benford).13% → 21%
- 5Q2 0:19LVK.Cousins pass incomplete short left to T.Tucker. PENALTY on BUF-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 33 - No Play. PENALTY on…31% → 37%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Allen led the Bills at +10.7 EPA (23 of 33 for 255). K.Cousins led the Raiders at +11.5 EPA (23 of 41 for 313).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 23/33 | 255 | 2 | 2 | +10.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook66% | 22 | 76% | 95 | 1 | 0.0 |
| J.Allen100% | 5 | 17% | 1 | +0.0 | |
| T.Johnson18% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| R.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 4 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Kincaid72% | 8 | 27% | 7 | 38 | -1.1 | |
| K.Shakir60% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 34 | 1 | +2.6 |
| K.Coleman85% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 59 | 1 | +5.3 |
| J.Cook66% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 58 | +5.0 | |
| T.Johnson18% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 24 | +4.0 | |
| J.Palmer25% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 37 | +1.9 | |
| D.Knox69% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| R.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 | |
| S.Bell44% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense D.Williams 1 INT · Kicking T.Bass 4/4 FG, 3/3 XP, 15 pts
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 23/41 | 313 | 2 | 1 | +11.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty58% | 10 | 50% | 22 | 1 | -3.8 |
| M.Jr.35% | 9 | 45% | 43 | -1.2 | |
| D.Laube8% | 1 | 5% | 0 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mayer79% | 9 | 23% | 7 | 95 | +2.6 | |
| B.Bowers98% | 9 | 23% | 4 | 70 | +3.2 | |
| T.Tucker70% | 7 | 18% | 5 | 97 | 2 | +9.0 |
| A.Jeanty58% | 6 | 15% | 4 | 36 | +2.4 | |
| J.Nailor64% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 9 | -1.8 | |
| C.White21% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -2.2 | |
| D.Laube8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1 | -1.2 | |
| M.Jr.35% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 |
Defense K.Paye 1 sack, Q.Walker 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 3/3 FG, 3/3 XP, 12 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Bills average 4.5 yards per carry (7th). Raiders allow 5.2 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Raiders are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.73 EPA per attempt. Bills send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Bills take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (13th). Raiders get home on 7% (16th). League average is 7%.
Success rate
Call this one even. Bills succeed on 49% of plays (4th) against a defense that allows 48% (30th).
The series is even at 6–6 since 1999. The Bills have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | BUF 33 at LV 30 |
| 2023 · Wk 2 | LV 10 at BUF 38 |
| 2020 · Wk 4 | BUF 30 at LV 23 |
| 2017 · Wk 8 | LV 14 at BUF 34 |
| 2016 · Wk 13 | BUF 24 at LV 38 |
2026 records
| Bills | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 4–4 |
| Division | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Home | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Away | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LLLLW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 33.3 – 25.9 | 27.6 – 28.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.18#1 | +0.08#28 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#4 | 48%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.5#2 | 6.2#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 15%#1 | 11%#31 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#4 | +0.16#27 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#6 | -0.03#24 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#7 | 5.2#32 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#6 | 44%#25 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 72%#3 | 71%#27 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 145#17 | 163#25 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 64#9 | 56#19 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.1#19 | 8.6#26 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 46#7 | 32#16 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.