2026
Week 6 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Raiders offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Raiders, 7 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 33–30 and were favored the whole way, never below 56%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 8:13, 17 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 8:13LVK.Cousins pass short right to T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 36%
- 2Q4 4:56BUFJ.Allen pass short left to J.Cook pushed ob at LV 3 for 26 yards (J.Chinn).72% → 85%
- 3Q2 7:17BUFJ.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.73% → 81%
- 4Q3 0:03LVK.Cousins pass short middle to B.Bowers to BUF 2 for 15 yards (C.Benford).13% → 21%
- 5Q2 0:19LVK.Cousins pass incomplete short left to T.Tucker. PENALTY on BUF-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 33 - No Play. PENALTY on…31% → 37%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Allen led the Bills at +10.7 EPA (23 of 33 for 255). K.Cousins led the Raiders at +11.5 EPA (23 of 41 for 313).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 23/33 | 255 | 2 | 2 | +10.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook66% | 22 | 76% | 95 | 1 | 0.0 |
| J.Allen100% | 5 | 17% | 1 | +0.0 | |
| T.Johnson18% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| R.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 4 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Kincaid72% | 8 | 27% | 7 | 38 | -1.1 | |
| K.Shakir60% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 34 | 1 | +2.6 |
| K.Coleman85% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 59 | 1 | +5.3 |
| J.Cook66% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 58 | +5.0 | |
| T.Johnson18% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 24 | +4.0 | |
| J.Palmer25% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 37 | +1.9 | |
| D.Knox69% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| R.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 | |
| S.Bell44% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense D.Williams 1 INT · Kicking T.Bass 4/4 FG (long 47)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 23/41 | 313 | 2 | 1 | +11.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty58% | 10 | 50% | 22 | 1 | -3.8 |
| M.Jr.35% | 9 | 45% | 43 | -1.2 | |
| D.Laube8% | 1 | 5% | 0 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mayer79% | 9 | 23% | 7 | 95 | +2.6 | |
| B.Bowers98% | 9 | 23% | 4 | 70 | +3.2 | |
| T.Tucker70% | 7 | 18% | 5 | 97 | 2 | +9.0 |
| A.Jeanty58% | 6 | 15% | 4 | 36 | +2.4 | |
| J.Nailor64% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 9 | -1.8 | |
| C.White21% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -2.2 | |
| D.Laube8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1 | -1.2 | |
| M.Jr.35% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 |
Defense K.Paye 1 sack, Q.Walker 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 3/3 FG (long 35)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Bills give up 71 yards a game to tight ends (29th), against a league average of 55. Raiders' tight ends produce 120 (1st).
Deep right is open
Bills are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Raiders average 3.2 yards per carry (30th). Bills allow 3.6 (9th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Raiders create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (26th). Bills give them up at 10% (23rd).
The series is even at 6–6 since 1999. The Bills have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | BUF 33 at LV 30 |
| 2023 · Wk 2 | LV 10 at BUF 38 |
| 2020 · Wk 4 | BUF 30 at LV 23 |
| 2017 · Wk 8 | LV 14 at BUF 34 |
| 2016 · Wk 13 | BUF 24 at LV 38 |
2026 records
| Bills | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 4–4 |
| Division | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Home | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Away | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LLLLW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 33.3 – 25.9 | 27.6 – 28.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#14 | +0.06#23 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 43%#14 | 46%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#26 | 10%#23 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.19#6 | +0.12#24 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 5%#26 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#29 | -0.08#17 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.2#30 | 3.6#9 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#9 | 42%#21 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 55%#22 | 68%#23 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#32 | 154#24 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 120#1 | 71#29 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 13.6#1 | 9.1#29 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#2 | 44#29 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.