2026
Week 7 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Rams, 8 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 35–21 and were favored the whole way, never below 56%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 12:37, 7 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:37LVM.Stafford sacked at LA 17 for -8 yards (T.Hemingway).36% → 43%
- 2Q1 11:44LVK.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to T.Tucker. PENALTY on LA-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play.38% → 44%
- 3Q1 9:30LAB.Corum up the middle to LV 42 for 5 yards (N.Dean; E.Stokes). PENALTY on LV-T.Eichenberg, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 42.68% → 73%
- 4Q1 11:57LAE.Evans punts 64 yards to LV 19 M.Benson to LV 31 for 12 yards (O.Speights).57% → 62%
- 5Q1 13:39LVA.Cole punts 61 yards to end zone, Touchback.28% → 33%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Corum led the Rams at +7.8 EPA (17 carries for 93). A.Cole led the Raiders at +3.4 EPA (0 catches for 0).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 23/29 | 195 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Corum44% | 17 | 45% | 93 | 1 | +6.8 |
| K.Williams51% | 16 | 42% | 99 | 1 | -0.7 |
| M.Stafford100% | 3 | 8% | -3 | -3.5 | |
| P.Nacua85% | 2 | 5% | 10 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua85% | 10 | 34% | 8 | 68 | 1 | +5.1 |
| C.Parkinson69% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 48 | -2.5 | |
| D.Allen69% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 20 | 2 | +1.9 |
| T.Higbee74% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 14 | -0.2 | |
| K.Williams51% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 22 | +2.0 | |
| K.Mumpfield43% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 15 | +0.4 | |
| B.Corum44% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +1.0 |
Defense B.Young 1 sack, B.Fiske 1 sack
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 26/44 | 295 | 2 | 2 | -7.4 | |
| A.Cole | 1/1 | 13 | +3.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty72% | 8 | 47% | 15 | -3.5 | |
| M.Jr.26% | 6 | 35% | 27 | -2.1 | |
| K.Cousins100% | 3 | 18% | 6 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tucker82% | 12 | 28% | 5 | 103 | 1 | +2.8 |
| B.Bowers84% | 8 | 19% | 6 | 73 | +3.3 | |
| A.Jeanty72% | 8 | 19% | 8 | 61 | 1 | +0.5 |
| J.Nailor75% | 5 | 12% | 2 | 14 | -6.1 | |
| C.White25% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 4 | -6.2 | |
| M.Mayer82% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 32 | +1.1 | |
| I.Thomas26% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 8 | +1.9 | |
| C.Heyward10% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 13 | +3.4 | |
| M.Jr.26% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| M.Benson4% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense N.Dean 1 INT, T.Hemingway 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 3/4 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Rams average 4.9 yards per carry (4th). Raiders allow 5.2 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Raiders are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.73 EPA per attempt. Rams send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Raiders give up 32 yards a game to running backs (16th), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 43 (8th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (23rd). Raiders give them up at 11% (31st).
The Rams lead the series 7–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 5. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | LA 35 at LV 21 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | LV 15 at LA 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 14 | LV 16 at LA 17 |
| 2018 · Wk 1 | LA 33 at LV 13 |
| 2014 · Wk 13 | LV 0 at LA 52 |
2026 records
| Rams | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Division | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 2–2 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 2–2 | 1–1 |
| Home | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Away | 2–1 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WLLWW | LLLLW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 24.3 – 21.0 | 27.6 – 28.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.05#9 | +0.08#28 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#5 | 48%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 6.2#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#23 | 11%#31 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.07#15 | +0.16#27 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#5 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.01#7 | -0.03#24 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#4 | 5.2#32 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#5 | 44%#25 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#6 | 71%#27 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#10 | 163#25 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 66#6 | 56#18 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 10.1#4 | 8.6#26 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 43#8 | 32#16 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.