2026
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Jets, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 26–19 and were favored the whole way, never below 65%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 8:17, 9 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 8:17NET.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (D.Bailey; J.Briggs). FUMBLES (D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-J.Sherwood at NE 36. The Replay Official…10% → 19%
- 2Q2 7:00NYJG.Smith up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (G.Jacas). (Virtual Measurement).79% → 87%
- 3Q1 5:18NYJG.Smith sacked at NYJ 4 for -10 yards (C.Barmore).70% → 77%
- 4Q3 5:31NYJG.Smith sacked at NE 18 for -8 yards (E.Ponder).78% → 84%
- 5Q1 4:18NED.Maye pass deep right to R.Doubs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-R.Doubs was injured during the play.75% → 81%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
O.Jr. led the Jets at +5.9 EPA (6 catches for 103). D.Maye led the Patriots at +12.6 EPA (18 of 32 for 235).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 20/30 | 252 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +5.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Allen87% | 17 | 63% | 78 | -3.2 | |
| I.Davis13% | 7 | 26% | 16 | -1.8 | |
| G.Smith100% | 2 | 7% | -1 | -3.2 | |
| I.Williams15% | 1 | 4% | 4 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Jr.82% | 7 | 24% | 6 | 103 | 1 | +5.9 |
| G.Wilson98% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 44 | +3.9 | |
| M.Taylor55% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 33 | +0.9 | |
| T.Patrick69% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 15 | +0.7 | |
| K.Sadiq35% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 12 | -3.2 | |
| B.Allen87% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 26 | +1.5 | |
| J.Woods21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.9 | |
| I.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +0.9 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking J.Sanders 4/4 FG, 1/1 XP, 13 pts
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 18/32 | 235 | 3 | +12.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson60% | 14 | 39% | 36 | -1.9 | |
| C.Kiner18% | 11 | 31% | 57 | +1.6 | |
| T.Henderson24% | 7 | 19% | 31 | -6.7 | |
| D.Maye100% | 4 | 11% | 24 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown76% | 10 | 33% | 3 | 27 | -7.4 | |
| D.Douglas59% | 8 | 27% | 7 | 86 | 1 | +3.5 |
| H.Henry76% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 48 | 1 | +5.5 |
| E.Raridon57% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 11 | +0.0 | |
| R.Doubs3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 42 | 1 | +4.1 |
| K.Williams37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | +2.0 | |
| E.III62% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| T.Henderson24% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense C.Woods 1 INT, M.Williams 1 sack, C.Barmore 1 sack, E.Ponder 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 2/2 FG, 2/3 XP, 8 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Jets gain +0.13 EPA per dropback (10th). Patriots allow +0.08 (22nd).
Deep left is open
Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Jets send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Jets take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (26th). Patriots get home on 8% (5th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jets gain 5.6 yards per play (11th). Patriots give up 5.3 (12th), with the league at 5.4.
The Patriots lead the series 43–14 since 1999. They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | NYJ 19 at NE 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | NE 42 at NYJ 10 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | NYJ 14 at NE 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | NYJ 22 at NE 25 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | NE 3 at NYJ 24 |
2026 records
| Jets | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Division | 0–2 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 5–1 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 0–2 |
| Home | 1–3 | 3–0 |
| Away | 1–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 5 | LWLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 23.5 | 23.0 – 20.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#11 | +0.01#18 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#11 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 5.3#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#5 | 9%#16 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#10 | +0.08#22 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 8%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#19 | -0.09#14 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#12 | 3.8#11 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 38%#10 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#32 | 57%#12 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#12 | 152#23 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#21 | 52#15 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.9#12 | 7.9#20 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 31#15 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.