2026
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Patriots, 8 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 26–19 and were favored the whole way, never below 65%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 8:17, 9 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 8:17NYJT.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (D.Bailey; J.Briggs). FUMBLES (D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-J.Sherwood at NE 36. The Replay Official…10% → 19%
- 2Q2 7:00NEG.Smith up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (G.Jacas). (Virtual Measurement).79% → 87%
- 3Q1 5:18NEG.Smith sacked at NYJ 4 for -10 yards (C.Barmore).70% → 77%
- 4Q3 5:31NEG.Smith sacked at NE 18 for -8 yards (E.Ponder).78% → 84%
- 5Q1 4:18NED.Maye pass deep right to R.Doubs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-R.Doubs was injured during the play.75% → 81%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
O.Jr. led the Jets at +5.9 EPA (6 catches for 103). D.Maye led the Patriots at +12.6 EPA (18 of 32 for 235).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 20/30 | 252 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +5.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Allen87% | 17 | 63% | 78 | -3.2 | |
| I.Davis13% | 7 | 26% | 16 | -1.8 | |
| G.Smith100% | 2 | 7% | -1 | -3.2 | |
| I.Williams15% | 1 | 4% | 4 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Jr.82% | 7 | 24% | 6 | 103 | 1 | +5.9 |
| G.Wilson98% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 44 | +3.9 | |
| M.Taylor55% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 33 | +0.9 | |
| T.Patrick69% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 15 | +0.7 | |
| K.Sadiq35% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 12 | -3.2 | |
| B.Allen87% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 26 | +1.5 | |
| J.Woods21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.9 | |
| I.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +0.9 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking J.Sanders 4/4 FG (long 42)
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 18/32 | 235 | 3 | +12.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson60% | 14 | 39% | 36 | -1.9 | |
| C.Kiner18% | 11 | 31% | 57 | +1.6 | |
| T.Henderson24% | 7 | 19% | 31 | -6.7 | |
| D.Maye100% | 4 | 11% | 24 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown76% | 10 | 33% | 3 | 27 | -7.4 | |
| D.Douglas59% | 8 | 27% | 7 | 86 | 1 | +3.5 |
| H.Henry76% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 48 | 1 | +5.5 |
| E.Raridon57% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 11 | +0.0 | |
| R.Doubs3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 42 | 1 | +4.1 |
| K.Williams37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | +2.0 | |
| E.III62% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| T.Henderson24% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense C.Woods 1 INT, M.Williams 1 sack, C.Barmore 1 sack, E.Ponder 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 2/2 FG (long 32)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Patriots gain +0.15 EPA per dropback (8th). Jets allow +0.12 (25th).
Deep left is open
Jets are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.53 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Patriots' run game is 23rd in EPA per carry (-0.14). Jets allow -0.14 (7th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Patriots create explosive plays on 11% of snaps (8th). Jets give them up at 9% (11th).
The Patriots lead the series 43–14 since 1999. They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | NYJ 19 at NE 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | NE 42 at NYJ 10 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | NYJ 14 at NE 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | NYJ 22 at NE 25 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | NE 3 at NYJ 24 |
2026 records
| Jets | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Division | 0–2 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 5–1 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 0–2 |
| Home | 1–3 | 3–0 |
| Away | 1–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 5 | LWLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 23.5 | 23.0 – 20.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#9 | +0.02#19 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 45%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#8 | 9%#11 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.15#8 | +0.12#25 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.14#23 | -0.14#7 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#20 | 3.9#15 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#11 | 41%#16 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#25 | 64%#20 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#11 | 121#5 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#10 | 60#24 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.8#22 | 7.8#17 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#12 | 27#11 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.