Saints offensevsRaiders defense

The Raiders won 35–27 from as low as 8% (Q3 4:22, down 27⁠–⁠16). The Saints had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 9:15: K.Miller left guard to NO 30 for 3 yards (M.Crosby) (50% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 8:03, 24 points for the Raiders.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q4 8:03NOT.Shough pass short left intended for B.Lance INTERCEPTED by H.Masses [M.Koonce] at NO 43. H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (J.Johnson). FUMBLES…54% → 77%+24 LV
2. 2Q4 13:04NOT.Shough sacked at LV 39 for -10 yards (M.Koonce). FUMBLES (M.Koonce) [M.Koonce], touched at LV 39, RECOVERED by LV-M.Crosby at LV 45.16% → 31%+15 LV
3. 3Q3 3:29LVM.Washington right guard pushed ob at NO 1 for 35 yards (J.Reid). Las Vegas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was…12% → 24%+11 LV
4. 4Q3 6:40LVD.Carlson kicks 63 yards from NO 35 to LV 2. D.Laube to LV 30 for 28 yards (A.Jennings). FUMBLES (A.Jennings), RECOVERED by NO-J.Howden at LV 32.69% → 80%+11 NO
5. 5Q2 0:19LVK.Cousins pass short left to B.Bowers pushed ob at NO 14 for 15 yards (J.Sanker). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the…50% → 59%+9 LV
6. ★Q4 9:15NOK.Miller left guard to NO 30 for 3 yards (M.Crosby).turning point50% → 51%+1 LV

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.